US-mediated trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States remain stalled since late March, with the Kremlin citing a "situational pause" amid unresolved territorial disputes—Kyiv refuses to cede eastern regions without resistance, a core Russian demand—and distractions from escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran. Russia's spring offensive, launched around March 24, has yielded minimal territorial gains amid Ukrainian counteractions, per recent Institute for the Study of War assessments, while intensified drone and missile strikes over Easter weekend rejected Zelenskyy's truce proposal, signaling de-escalation barriers. Traders' 92.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched deadlock and lack of diplomatic momentum ahead of the June 30 deadline, though a sudden breakthrough or leadership shift could alter dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$70,295 Vol.
$70,295 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$70,295 Vol.
$70,295 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States remain stalled since late March, with the Kremlin citing a "situational pause" amid unresolved territorial disputes—Kyiv refuses to cede eastern regions without resistance, a core Russian demand—and distractions from escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran. Russia's spring offensive, launched around March 24, has yielded minimal territorial gains amid Ukrainian counteractions, per recent Institute for the Study of War assessments, while intensified drone and missile strikes over Easter weekend rejected Zelenskyy's truce proposal, signaling de-escalation barriers. Traders' 92.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched deadlock and lack of diplomatic momentum ahead of the June 30 deadline, though a sudden breakthrough or leadership shift could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$70,295Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States remain stalled since late March, with the Kremlin citing a "situational pause" amid unresolved territorial disputes—Kyiv refuses to cede eastern regions without resistance, a core Russian demand—and distractions from escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran. Russia's spring offensive, launched around March 24, has yielded minimal territorial gains amid Ukrainian counteractions, per recent Institute for the Study of War assessments, while intensified drone and missile strikes over Easter weekend rejected Zelenskyy's truce proposal, signaling de-escalation barriers. Traders' 92.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched deadlock and lack of diplomatic momentum ahead of the June 30 deadline, though a sudden breakthrough or leadership shift could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$70,295Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States remain stalled since late March, with the Kremlin citing a "situational pause" amid unresolved territorial disputes—Kyiv refuses to cede eastern regions without resistance, a core Russian demand—and distractions from escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran. Russia's spring offensive, launched around March 24, has yielded minimal territorial gains amid Ukrainian counteractions, per recent Institute for the Study of War assessments, while intensified drone and missile strikes over Easter weekend rejected Zelenskyy's truce proposal, signaling de-escalation barriers. Traders' 92.5% implied probability on "No" reflects this entrenched deadlock and lack of diplomatic momentum ahead of the June 30 deadline, though a sudden breakthrough or leadership shift could alter dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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