Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that Ukraine will not join NATO before 2027, driven by the ongoing Russian invasion that precludes accession amid active conflict, as it would trigger Article 5 collective defense obligations without allied consensus. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated in late March 2026 that membership is "not on the cards for now," emphasizing post-war security guarantees instead, while U.S. diplomatic pressure in February sidelined Ukraine from full participation at the upcoming July Ankara summit. No Membership Action Plan has advanced, and historical NATO enlargement precedents require years of reforms and ratification by all 32 members—impossible within eight months. Only a rapid ceasefire, unanimous invitation, and accelerated ratification could shift odds, though such scenarios remain highly improbable.