**Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure and complicating access to stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.** IAEA reports since then indicate Iran has not granted inspectors full access to affected facilities or verified the status of its enriched uranium, with satellite imagery showing only limited activity and no confirmed progress toward weaponization or testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and the IAEA, alongside US statements noting suspended enrichment and interest in stockpile dilution, have reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will avoid the high-risk step of a nuclear test before 2027 amid reconstruction challenges and escalation risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure and complicating access to stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.** IAEA reports since then indicate Iran has not granted inspectors full access to affected facilities or verified the status of its enriched uranium, with satellite imagery showing only limited activity and no confirmed progress toward weaponization or testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and the IAEA, alongside US statements noting suspended enrichment and interest in stockpile dilution, have reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will avoid the high-risk step of a nuclear test before 2027 amid reconstruction challenges and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$196,569Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure and complicating access to stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.** IAEA reports since then indicate Iran has not granted inspectors full access to affected facilities or verified the status of its enriched uranium, with satellite imagery showing only limited activity and no confirmed progress toward weaponization or testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and the IAEA, alongside US statements noting suspended enrichment and interest in stockpile dilution, have reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will avoid the high-risk step of a nuclear test before 2027 amid reconstruction challenges and escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$196,569Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 severely damaged Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying above-ground infrastructure and complicating access to stockpiles of uranium enriched up to 60 percent.** IAEA reports since then indicate Iran has not granted inspectors full access to affected facilities or verified the status of its enriched uranium, with satellite imagery showing only limited activity and no confirmed progress toward weaponization or testing. Ongoing diplomatic talks between Iran and the IAEA, alongside US statements noting suspended enrichment and interest in stockpile dilution, have reinforced trader expectations that Tehran will avoid the high-risk step of a nuclear test before 2027 amid reconstruction challenges and escalation risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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