US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's breakout time to produce a nuclear weapon remains around one year, largely unaffected by recent US and Israeli strikes on nuclear and missile facilities during the ongoing conflict. IAEA reports in February-March noted Iran's stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but stored underground with no verified weaponization or testing preparations amid limited agency access. Diplomatic signals, including Iran's recent war-ending proposal and rising odds on US-Iran nuclear deal markets before 2027, reinforce trader consensus on formidable military, sanctions, and technical barriers to a test by year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$189,938 Vol.
$189,938 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's breakout time to produce a nuclear weapon remains around one year, largely unaffected by recent US and Israeli strikes on nuclear and missile facilities during the ongoing conflict. IAEA reports in February-March noted Iran's stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but stored underground with no verified weaponization or testing preparations amid limited agency access. Diplomatic signals, including Iran's recent war-ending proposal and rising odds on US-Iran nuclear deal markets before 2027, reinforce trader consensus on formidable military, sanctions, and technical barriers to a test by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$189,938Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's breakout time to produce a nuclear weapon remains around one year, largely unaffected by recent US and Israeli strikes on nuclear and missile facilities during the ongoing conflict. IAEA reports in February-March noted Iran's stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but stored underground with no verified weaponization or testing preparations amid limited agency access. Diplomatic signals, including Iran's recent war-ending proposal and rising odds on US-Iran nuclear deal markets before 2027, reinforce trader consensus on formidable military, sanctions, and technical barriers to a test by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$189,938Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's breakout time to produce a nuclear weapon remains around one year, largely unaffected by recent US and Israeli strikes on nuclear and missile facilities during the ongoing conflict. IAEA reports in February-March noted Iran's stockpile of over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but stored underground with no verified weaponization or testing preparations amid limited agency access. Diplomatic signals, including Iran's recent war-ending proposal and rising odds on US-Iran nuclear deal markets before 2027, reinforce trader consensus on formidable military, sanctions, and technical barriers to a test by year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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