Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, driven by US and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 that have repeatedly targeted Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, severely degrading capabilities without prompting weaponization. IAEA reports from February and March 2026 confirm Iran's stockpile of nearly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple bombs if further processed—but note limited inspector access to strike-damaged sites like Isfahan, with no evidence of diversion to a test or explosion. Recent Trump administration threats of escalated strikes and IAEA findings of unexplained rebuilding efforts underscore high barriers, including technical setbacks, retaliation risks, and diplomatic isolation, leaving slim odds for a test in the remaining 20 months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$146,522 Vol.
$146,522 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$146,522 Vol.
$146,522 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, driven by US and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 that have repeatedly targeted Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, severely degrading capabilities without prompting weaponization. IAEA reports from February and March 2026 confirm Iran's stockpile of nearly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple bombs if further processed—but note limited inspector access to strike-damaged sites like Isfahan, with no evidence of diversion to a test or explosion. Recent Trump administration threats of escalated strikes and IAEA findings of unexplained rebuilding efforts underscore high barriers, including technical setbacks, retaliation risks, and diplomatic isolation, leaving slim odds for a test in the remaining 20 months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$146,522Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, driven by US and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 that have repeatedly targeted Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, severely degrading capabilities without prompting weaponization. IAEA reports from February and March 2026 confirm Iran's stockpile of nearly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple bombs if further processed—but note limited inspector access to strike-damaged sites like Isfahan, with no evidence of diversion to a test or explosion. Recent Trump administration threats of escalated strikes and IAEA findings of unexplained rebuilding efforts underscore high barriers, including technical setbacks, retaliation risks, and diplomatic isolation, leaving slim odds for a test in the remaining 20 months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$146,522Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 91.5% for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, driven by US and Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 that have repeatedly targeted Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, severely degrading capabilities without prompting weaponization. IAEA reports from February and March 2026 confirm Iran's stockpile of nearly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple bombs if further processed—but note limited inspector access to strike-damaged sites like Isfahan, with no evidence of diversion to a test or explosion. Recent Trump administration threats of escalated strikes and IAEA findings of unexplained rebuilding efforts underscore high barriers, including technical setbacks, retaliation risks, and diplomatic isolation, leaving slim odds for a test in the remaining 20 months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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