Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA reports from late February and early March 2026 confirming no resumption of proliferation-sensitive activities like weaponization despite a stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—enough for potential bombs if further processed but stored securely post-2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile bases and infrastructure, including Isfahan, as affirmed in IAEA monitoring showing no radiation spikes at nuclear sites like Bushehr, have degraded capabilities amid ongoing escalation. Official Iranian statements reiterate a religious fatwa against nuclear weapons, with diplomatic pressures and sanctions reinforcing restraint, though uncertainties persist from war dynamics and leadership shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$146,419 Vol.
$146,419 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$146,419 Vol.
$146,419 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA reports from late February and early March 2026 confirming no resumption of proliferation-sensitive activities like weaponization despite a stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—enough for potential bombs if further processed but stored securely post-2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile bases and infrastructure, including Isfahan, as affirmed in IAEA monitoring showing no radiation spikes at nuclear sites like Bushehr, have degraded capabilities amid ongoing escalation. Official Iranian statements reiterate a religious fatwa against nuclear weapons, with diplomatic pressures and sanctions reinforcing restraint, though uncertainties persist from war dynamics and leadership shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$146,419Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA reports from late February and early March 2026 confirming no resumption of proliferation-sensitive activities like weaponization despite a stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—enough for potential bombs if further processed but stored securely post-2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile bases and infrastructure, including Isfahan, as affirmed in IAEA monitoring showing no radiation spikes at nuclear sites like Bushehr, have degraded capabilities amid ongoing escalation. Official Iranian statements reiterate a religious fatwa against nuclear weapons, with diplomatic pressures and sanctions reinforcing restraint, though uncertainties persist from war dynamics and leadership shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$146,419Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA reports from late February and early March 2026 confirming no resumption of proliferation-sensitive activities like weaponization despite a stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium—enough for potential bombs if further processed but stored securely post-2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian missile bases and infrastructure, including Isfahan, as affirmed in IAEA monitoring showing no radiation spikes at nuclear sites like Bushehr, have degraded capabilities amid ongoing escalation. Official Iranian statements reiterate a religious fatwa against nuclear weapons, with diplomatic pressures and sanctions reinforcing restraint, though uncertainties persist from war dynamics and leadership shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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