US officials have conducted strategic reviews of Middle East force posture following Iranian strikes that damaged Gulf installations in early 2026, prompting reports of possible asset shifts or expanded access in Israel, including Negev options. However, as of mid-September, no formal announcement of a new permanent US military base has occurred, with bilateral talks described as ongoing but without finalized agreements or commitments. Recent developments include continued US-Israel defense technology coordination under pending legislation, temporary wartime hosting of US aircraft, and separate basing discussions elsewhere, such as Poland. Traders appear to view the absence of concrete executive or Pentagon decisions within the calendar year, combined with longstanding US policy avoiding sovereign bases in Israel, as the dominant factors supporting the current implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
23% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
23% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. US officials have conducted strategic reviews of Middle East force posture following Iranian strikes that damaged Gulf installations in early 2026, prompting reports of possible asset shifts or expanded access in Israel, including Negev options. However, as of mid-September, no formal announcement of a new permanent US military base has occurred, with bilateral talks described as ongoing but without finalized agreements or commitments. Recent developments include continued US-Israel defense technology coordination under pending legislation, temporary wartime hosting of US aircraft, and separate basing discussions elsewhere, such as Poland. Traders appear to view the absence of concrete executive or Pentagon decisions within the calendar year, combined with longstanding US policy avoiding sovereign bases in Israel, as the dominant factors supporting the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
Volume
$633Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. US officials have conducted strategic reviews of Middle East force posture following Iranian strikes that damaged Gulf installations in early 2026, prompting reports of possible asset shifts or expanded access in Israel, including Negev options. However, as of mid-September, no formal announcement of a new permanent US military base has occurred, with bilateral talks described as ongoing but without finalized agreements or commitments. Recent developments include continued US-Israel defense technology coordination under pending legislation, temporary wartime hosting of US aircraft, and separate basing discussions elsewhere, such as Poland. Traders appear to view the absence of concrete executive or Pentagon decisions within the calendar year, combined with longstanding US policy avoiding sovereign bases in Israel, as the dominant factors supporting the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
Volume
$633Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US officials have conducted strategic reviews of Middle East force posture following Iranian strikes that damaged Gulf installations in early 2026, prompting reports of possible asset shifts or expanded access in Israel, including Negev options. However, as of mid-September, no formal announcement of a new permanent US military base has occurred, with bilateral talks described as ongoing but without finalized agreements or commitments. Recent developments include continued US-Israel defense technology coordination under pending legislation, temporary wartime hosting of US aircraft, and separate basing discussions elsewhere, such as Poland. Traders appear to view the absence of concrete executive or Pentagon decisions within the calendar year, combined with longstanding US policy avoiding sovereign bases in Israel, as the dominant factors supporting the current implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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