Market icon
Economy·TSA

Number of TSA Passengers March 31?

Market icon
Economy·TSA

Number of TSA Passengers March 31?

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

<2.4M 90%

2.4M-2.6M 26%

2.6M-2.8M 2.1%

>3.2M <1%

Polymarket
NEW

<2.4M 90%

2.4M-2.6M 26%

2.6M-2.8M 2.1%

>3.2M <1%

Polymarket
NEW

<2.4M

$85 Vol.

75%

2.4M-2.6M

$0 Vol.

26%

2.6M-2.8M

$115 Vol.

2%

2.8M-3.0M

$15 Vol.

1%

3.0M-3.2M

$124 Vol.

1%

>3.2M

$38 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 31, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability for TSA passenger throughput below 2.4 million on March 31, reflecting recent weekday lows amid a protracted partial DHS shutdown that has triggered over 450 TSA officer quits and absence rates exceeding 40%, resulting in record four-plus-hour security lines at major airports. March 24 Tuesday screened just 2.19 million passengers, while March 25 logged 2.38 million—both under 2.4 million—following mid-March spring break peaks above 2.8 million on weekends. Ongoing disruptions, despite projected record 171 million spring travelers, signal caution for the upcoming Tuesday, with 40.5% odds on 2.4-2.6 million as a secondary outcome ahead of Easter ramp-up. Senate passage of TSA funding on March 27 offers potential relief, though implementation lags resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability for TSA passenger throughput below 2.4 million on March 31, reflecting recent weekday lows amid a protracted partial DHS shutdown that has triggered over 450 TSA officer quits and absence rates exceeding 40%, resulting in record four-plus-hour security lines at major airports. March 24 Tuesday screened just 2.19 million passengers, while March 25 logged 2.38 million—both under 2.4 million—following mid-March spring break peaks above 2.8 million on weekends. Ongoing disruptions, despite projected record 171 million spring travelers, signal caution for the upcoming Tuesday, with 40.5% odds on 2.4-2.6 million as a secondary outcome ahead of Easter ramp-up. Senate passage of TSA funding on March 27 offers potential relief, though implementation lags resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on March 31, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability for TSA passenger throughput below 2.4 million on March 31, reflecting recent weekday lows amid a protracted partial DHS shutdown that has triggered over 450 TSA officer quits and absence rates exceeding 40%, resulting in record four-plus-hour security lines at major airports. March 24 Tuesday screened just 2.19 million passengers, while March 25 logged 2.38 million—both under 2.4 million—following mid-March spring break peaks above 2.8 million on weekends. Ongoing disruptions, despite projected record 171 million spring travelers, signal caution for the upcoming Tuesday, with 40.5% odds on 2.4-2.6 million as a secondary outcome ahead of Easter ramp-up. Senate passage of TSA funding on March 27 offers potential relief, though implementation lags resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability for TSA passenger throughput below 2.4 million on March 31, reflecting recent weekday lows amid a protracted partial DHS shutdown that has triggered over 450 TSA officer quits and absence rates exceeding 40%, resulting in record four-plus-hour security lines at major airports. March 24 Tuesday screened just 2.19 million passengers, while March 25 logged 2.38 million—both under 2.4 million—following mid-March spring break peaks above 2.8 million on weekends. Ongoing disruptions, despite projected record 171 million spring travelers, signal caution for the upcoming Tuesday, with 40.5% odds on 2.4-2.6 million as a secondary outcome ahead of Easter ramp-up. Senate passage of TSA funding on March 27 offers potential relief, though implementation lags resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Number of TSA Passengers March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<2.4M" at 75%, followed by "2.4M-2.6M" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Number of TSA Passengers March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Number of TSA Passengers March 31?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Number of TSA Passengers March 31?" is "<2.4M" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2.4M-2.6M" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Number of TSA Passengers March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.