Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900 billion dollars at 32.5%, closely trailed by 900 billion–1 trillion at 23.5%, reflecting volatility in recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data amid the Trump administration's tariff expansions. February's goods and services deficit widened 4.9% to 57.3 billion dollars after January's contraction, yet the year-to-date gap plunged 54.8% versus 2025, with the 12-month trailing total at 776 billion dollars—buoyed by a 32% drop in the China goods deficit. Ongoing policy swings, including phased tariffs generating over 144 billion dollars in revenue this fiscal year, balance against robust consumer imports and potential foreign retaliation. March data release and further executive trade actions could widen or narrow the gap, keeping higher and lower bins competitive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$18,901 Vol.
$18,901 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
9%
500–600B
4%
600–700B
7%
700–800B
12%
800–900B
30%
900B–1T
17%
1T–1.1T
11%
1.1T+
9%
$18,901 Vol.
$18,901 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,415 Vol.
9%
500–600B
$225 Vol.
4%
600–700B
$211 Vol.
7%
700–800B
$247 Vol.
12%
800–900B
$393 Vol.
30%
900B–1T
$750 Vol.
17%
1T–1.1T
$231 Vol.
11%
1.1T+
$430 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900 billion dollars at 32.5%, closely trailed by 900 billion–1 trillion at 23.5%, reflecting volatility in recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data amid the Trump administration's tariff expansions. February's goods and services deficit widened 4.9% to 57.3 billion dollars after January's contraction, yet the year-to-date gap plunged 54.8% versus 2025, with the 12-month trailing total at 776 billion dollars—buoyed by a 32% drop in the China goods deficit. Ongoing policy swings, including phased tariffs generating over 144 billion dollars in revenue this fiscal year, balance against robust consumer imports and potential foreign retaliation. March data release and further executive trade actions could widen or narrow the gap, keeping higher and lower bins competitive.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$18,901End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900 billion dollars at 32.5%, closely trailed by 900 billion–1 trillion at 23.5%, reflecting volatility in recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data amid the Trump administration's tariff expansions. February's goods and services deficit widened 4.9% to 57.3 billion dollars after January's contraction, yet the year-to-date gap plunged 54.8% versus 2025, with the 12-month trailing total at 776 billion dollars—buoyed by a 32% drop in the China goods deficit. Ongoing policy swings, including phased tariffs generating over 144 billion dollars in revenue this fiscal year, balance against robust consumer imports and potential foreign retaliation. March data release and further executive trade actions could widen or narrow the gap, keeping higher and lower bins competitive.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$18,901End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900 billion dollars at 32.5%, closely trailed by 900 billion–1 trillion at 23.5%, reflecting volatility in recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data amid the Trump administration's tariff expansions. February's goods and services deficit widened 4.9% to 57.3 billion dollars after January's contraction, yet the year-to-date gap plunged 54.8% versus 2025, with the 12-month trailing total at 776 billion dollars—buoyed by a 32% drop in the China goods deficit. Ongoing policy swings, including phased tariffs generating over 144 billion dollars in revenue this fiscal year, balance against robust consumer imports and potential foreign retaliation. March data release and further executive trade actions could widen or narrow the gap, keeping higher and lower bins competitive.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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