The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $60.3 billion goods and services trade deficit in March 2026, up 4.4% from February as imports surged 2.3% to $381.2 billion amid robust consumer demand, outpacing 2% export growth. This recent widening, following a $901 billion full-year 2025 deficit despite Trump administration tariffs, anchors trader consensus around an 800–900B outcome at 37%, with 900B–1T close behind at 28.5%. Uncertainty over tariff impacts—mixed by a federal trade court ruling against 10% global tariffs last week—combined with strong dollar pressures and energy trade dynamics keeps the race tight. Upcoming April data release and potential executive actions on duties could tip probabilities toward separation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$20,969 Vol.
$20,969 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
8%
500–600B
7%
600–700B
6%
700–800B
8%
800–900B
33%
900B–1T
26%
1T–1.1T
9%
1.1T+
5%
$20,969 Vol.
$20,969 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,636 Vol.
8%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
7%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
6%
700–800B
$455 Vol.
8%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
33%
900B–1T
$956 Vol.
26%
1T–1.1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1.1T+
$624 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $60.3 billion goods and services trade deficit in March 2026, up 4.4% from February as imports surged 2.3% to $381.2 billion amid robust consumer demand, outpacing 2% export growth. This recent widening, following a $901 billion full-year 2025 deficit despite Trump administration tariffs, anchors trader consensus around an 800–900B outcome at 37%, with 900B–1T close behind at 28.5%. Uncertainty over tariff impacts—mixed by a federal trade court ruling against 10% global tariffs last week—combined with strong dollar pressures and energy trade dynamics keeps the race tight. Upcoming April data release and potential executive actions on duties could tip probabilities toward separation.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,969End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $60.3 billion goods and services trade deficit in March 2026, up 4.4% from February as imports surged 2.3% to $381.2 billion amid robust consumer demand, outpacing 2% export growth. This recent widening, following a $901 billion full-year 2025 deficit despite Trump administration tariffs, anchors trader consensus around an 800–900B outcome at 37%, with 900B–1T close behind at 28.5%. Uncertainty over tariff impacts—mixed by a federal trade court ruling against 10% global tariffs last week—combined with strong dollar pressures and energy trade dynamics keeps the race tight. Upcoming April data release and potential executive actions on duties could tip probabilities toward separation.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$20,969End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $60.3 billion goods and services trade deficit in March 2026, up 4.4% from February as imports surged 2.3% to $381.2 billion amid robust consumer demand, outpacing 2% export growth. This recent widening, following a $901 billion full-year 2025 deficit despite Trump administration tariffs, anchors trader consensus around an 800–900B outcome at 37%, with 900B–1T close behind at 28.5%. Uncertainty over tariff impacts—mixed by a federal trade court ruling against 10% global tariffs last week—combined with strong dollar pressures and energy trade dynamics keeps the race tight. Upcoming April data release and potential executive actions on duties could tip probabilities toward separation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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