Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven primarily by a surge in imports of computers, semiconductors, and related capital goods tied to AI infrastructure spending. The trailing twelve-month deficit through July stands at $744 billion, reflecting resilient domestic demand and elevated capital-goods inflows that have offset tariff-induced adjustments and a solid services surplus. Effective tariff rates have stabilized near 7 percent following policy shifts and exemptions, while energy and commodity exports have provided some counterbalance. Market-implied odds favoring an $800–900 billion full-year 2026 outcome align with continued import momentum from AI-related demand and steady consumer spending, tempered by slower global growth and potential further tariff refinements ahead of year-end data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,762 Vol.
$24,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
4%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
21%
800–900B
40%
900B–1T
13%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
3%
$24,762 Vol.
$24,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
4%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$720 Vol.
21%
800–900B
$1,895 Vol.
40%
900B–1T
$1,509 Vol.
13%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,215 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven primarily by a surge in imports of computers, semiconductors, and related capital goods tied to AI infrastructure spending. The trailing twelve-month deficit through July stands at $744 billion, reflecting resilient domestic demand and elevated capital-goods inflows that have offset tariff-induced adjustments and a solid services surplus. Effective tariff rates have stabilized near 7 percent following policy shifts and exemptions, while energy and commodity exports have provided some counterbalance. Market-implied odds favoring an $800–900 billion full-year 2026 outcome align with continued import momentum from AI-related demand and steady consumer spending, tempered by slower global growth and potential further tariff refinements ahead of year-end data releases.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,762End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven primarily by a surge in imports of computers, semiconductors, and related capital goods tied to AI infrastructure spending. The trailing twelve-month deficit through July stands at $744 billion, reflecting resilient domestic demand and elevated capital-goods inflows that have offset tariff-induced adjustments and a solid services surplus. Effective tariff rates have stabilized near 7 percent following policy shifts and exemptions, while energy and commodity exports have provided some counterbalance. Market-implied odds favoring an $800–900 billion full-year 2026 outcome align with continued import momentum from AI-related demand and steady consumer spending, tempered by slower global growth and potential further tariff refinements ahead of year-end data releases.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,762End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven primarily by a surge in imports of computers, semiconductors, and related capital goods tied to AI infrastructure spending. The trailing twelve-month deficit through July stands at $744 billion, reflecting resilient domestic demand and elevated capital-goods inflows that have offset tariff-induced adjustments and a solid services surplus. Effective tariff rates have stabilized near 7 percent following policy shifts and exemptions, while energy and commodity exports have provided some counterbalance. Market-implied odds favoring an $800–900 billion full-year 2026 outcome align with continued import momentum from AI-related demand and steady consumer spending, tempered by slower global growth and potential further tariff refinements ahead of year-end data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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