Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show deficits widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven by rising imports of AI-related capital goods such as semiconductors and servers from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico alongside softer exports. The 12-month trailing total through July reached approximately $744 billion, positioning the 800–900 billion range as the modal outcome with 40% market-implied probability. Trader consensus reflects the durable AI investment impulse outweighing services surpluses near $31 billion monthly and fading commodity export tailwinds, while tariff volatility from 2025 continues to normalize import flows. Upcoming BEA releases and any shifts in monetary policy or dollar strength could adjust these probabilities before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,781 Vol.
$24,781 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
4%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
21%
800–900B
40%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
2%
$24,781 Vol.
$24,781 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
$16,860 Vol.
4%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$551 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$725 Vol.
21%
800–900B
$1,895 Vol.
40%
900B–1T
$1,509 Vol.
14%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,215 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show deficits widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven by rising imports of AI-related capital goods such as semiconductors and servers from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico alongside softer exports. The 12-month trailing total through July reached approximately $744 billion, positioning the 800–900 billion range as the modal outcome with 40% market-implied probability. Trader consensus reflects the durable AI investment impulse outweighing services surpluses near $31 billion monthly and fading commodity export tailwinds, while tariff volatility from 2025 continues to normalize import flows. Upcoming BEA releases and any shifts in monetary policy or dollar strength could adjust these probabilities before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,781End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show deficits widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven by rising imports of AI-related capital goods such as semiconductors and servers from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico alongside softer exports. The 12-month trailing total through July reached approximately $744 billion, positioning the 800–900 billion range as the modal outcome with 40% market-implied probability. Trader consensus reflects the durable AI investment impulse outweighing services surpluses near $31 billion monthly and fading commodity export tailwinds, while tariff volatility from 2025 continues to normalize import flows. Upcoming BEA releases and any shifts in monetary policy or dollar strength could adjust these probabilities before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,781End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show deficits widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven by rising imports of AI-related capital goods such as semiconductors and servers from Taiwan, Vietnam, and Mexico alongside softer exports. The 12-month trailing total through July reached approximately $744 billion, positioning the 800–900 billion range as the modal outcome with 40% market-implied probability. Trader consensus reflects the durable AI investment impulse outweighing services surpluses near $31 billion monthly and fading commodity export tailwinds, while tariff volatility from 2025 continues to normalize import flows. Upcoming BEA releases and any shifts in monetary policy or dollar strength could adjust these probabilities before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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