Strong US domestic demand and AI-driven capital goods imports continue to anchor trader consensus around an 800–900 billion dollar annual goods-and-services trade deficit for 2026, carrying the highest implied probability at 40 percent. Recent monthly data show the July deficit widening to 88.6 billion dollars as imports rose 2.8 percent while exports fell, consistent with earlier 2026 volatility tied to tariff front-loading unwind and sustained semiconductor and equipment inflows from Taiwan and Vietnam. Economic resilience, with solid GDP growth and business investment, has kept import volumes elevated even as some commodity export tailwinds fade. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, tempered by uncertainty over further policy shifts and potential moderation in consumer spending.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,762 Vol.
$24,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
28%
800–900B
40%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
2%
$24,762 Vol.
$24,762 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$720 Vol.
28%
800–900B
$1,895 Vol.
40%
900B–1T
$1,509 Vol.
14%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,215 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Strong US domestic demand and AI-driven capital goods imports continue to anchor trader consensus around an 800–900 billion dollar annual goods-and-services trade deficit for 2026, carrying the highest implied probability at 40 percent. Recent monthly data show the July deficit widening to 88.6 billion dollars as imports rose 2.8 percent while exports fell, consistent with earlier 2026 volatility tied to tariff front-loading unwind and sustained semiconductor and equipment inflows from Taiwan and Vietnam. Economic resilience, with solid GDP growth and business investment, has kept import volumes elevated even as some commodity export tailwinds fade. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, tempered by uncertainty over further policy shifts and potential moderation in consumer spending.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,762End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Strong US domestic demand and AI-driven capital goods imports continue to anchor trader consensus around an 800–900 billion dollar annual goods-and-services trade deficit for 2026, carrying the highest implied probability at 40 percent. Recent monthly data show the July deficit widening to 88.6 billion dollars as imports rose 2.8 percent while exports fell, consistent with earlier 2026 volatility tied to tariff front-loading unwind and sustained semiconductor and equipment inflows from Taiwan and Vietnam. Economic resilience, with solid GDP growth and business investment, has kept import volumes elevated even as some commodity export tailwinds fade. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, tempered by uncertainty over further policy shifts and potential moderation in consumer spending.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,762End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong US domestic demand and AI-driven capital goods imports continue to anchor trader consensus around an 800–900 billion dollar annual goods-and-services trade deficit for 2026, carrying the highest implied probability at 40 percent. Recent monthly data show the July deficit widening to 88.6 billion dollars as imports rose 2.8 percent while exports fell, consistent with earlier 2026 volatility tied to tariff front-loading unwind and sustained semiconductor and equipment inflows from Taiwan and Vietnam. Economic resilience, with solid GDP growth and business investment, has kept import volumes elevated even as some commodity export tailwinds fade. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, tempered by uncertainty over further policy shifts and potential moderation in consumer spending.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions