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Politics·Airport

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30?

Market icon
Politics·Airport

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30?

Mar 27

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Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 27

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

49% chance
Polymarket
NEW
49% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Flight cancellation traders on Polymarket give "No" a slim 51% edge for fewer than 500 US flights scrapped on March 30, reflecting steady spring weather forecasts across major hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas-Fort Worth, with no severe storms or nor'easters predicted in the latest NOAA models. Recent days saw under 300 cancellations daily amid minor delays from FAA staffing shortages and Boeing mechanical issues, keeping volumes below the threshold historically hit during blizzards or summer thunderstorms. The tight race stems from tail risks like sudden airline IT failures—echoing Southwest's 2022 meltdown—or unforecasted Midwest turbulence, which could surge numbers above 500; conversely, clear skies through midnight ET would solidify the "No" consensus as the FAA tallies finalize.

Flight cancellation traders on Polymarket give "No" a slim 51% edge for fewer than 500 US flights scrapped on March 30, reflecting steady spring weather forecasts across major hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas-Fort Worth, with no severe storms or nor'easters predicted in the latest NOAA models. Recent days saw under 300 cancellations daily amid minor delays from FAA staffing shortages and Boeing mechanical issues, keeping volumes below the threshold historically hit during blizzards or summer thunderstorms. The tight race stems from tail risks like sudden airline IT failures—echoing Southwest's 2022 meltdown—or unforecasted Midwest turbulence, which could surge numbers above 500; conversely, clear skies through midnight ET would solidify the "No" consensus as the FAA tallies finalize.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Flight cancellation traders on Polymarket give "No" a slim 51% edge for fewer than 500 US flights scrapped on March 30, reflecting steady spring weather forecasts across major hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas-Fort Worth, with no severe storms or nor'easters predicted in the latest NOAA models. Recent days saw under 300 cancellations daily amid minor delays from FAA staffing shortages and Boeing mechanical issues, keeping volumes below the threshold historically hit during blizzards or summer thunderstorms. The tight race stems from tail risks like sudden airline IT failures—echoing Southwest's 2022 meltdown—or unforecasted Midwest turbulence, which could surge numbers above 500; conversely, clear skies through midnight ET would solidify the "No" consensus as the FAA tallies finalize.

Flight cancellation traders on Polymarket give "No" a slim 51% edge for fewer than 500 US flights scrapped on March 30, reflecting steady spring weather forecasts across major hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas-Fort Worth, with no severe storms or nor'easters predicted in the latest NOAA models. Recent days saw under 300 cancellations daily amid minor delays from FAA staffing shortages and Boeing mechanical issues, keeping volumes below the threshold historically hit during blizzards or summer thunderstorms. The tight race stems from tail risks like sudden airline IT failures—echoing Southwest's 2022 meltdown—or unforecasted Midwest turbulence, which could surge numbers above 500; conversely, clear skies through midnight ET would solidify the "No" consensus as the FAA tallies finalize.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 49% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 49¢, the market collectively assigns a 49% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30?" is 49% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 49% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.