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Politics·Gov Shutdown

How long will the DHS shutdown last?

Market icon
Politics·Gov Shutdown

How long will the DHS shutdown last?

Mar 14

Mar 14

Polymarket

$1,288,894 Vol.

Polymarket

$1,288,894 Vol.

52+ days

$37,988 Vol.

99%

60+ days

$292,557 Vol.

71%

70+ days

$8,626 Vol.

42%

80+ days

$14,099 Vol.

26%

90+ days

$17,725 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, triggered by an appropriations impasse over immigration enforcement funding and dating back to February 14, 2026, has surpassed 48 days to become the longest funding lapse in U.S. history, fueling trader consensus for prolonged duration with 99% odds on 52+ days and 71% on 60+ days. Recent Senate advancement of a clean funding bill for DHS—including TSA operations—offers a potential path forward, but House Republicans punted amid internal divisions, delaying action until their April 14 return when Speaker Johnson's chamber may require Democratic support. President Trump's imminent executive order to resume pay for unpaid DHS workers, including essential TSA personnel, eases worker hardship without resolving the lapse, as airport delays persist and pressure mounts for a continuing resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,288,894
End Date
Mar 14, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, triggered by an appropriations impasse over immigration enforcement funding and dating back to February 14, 2026, has surpassed 48 days to become the longest funding lapse in U.S. history, fueling trader consensus for prolonged duration with 99% odds on 52+ days and 71% on 60+ days. Recent Senate advancement of a clean funding bill for DHS—including TSA operations—offers a potential path forward, but House Republicans punted amid internal divisions, delaying action until their April 14 return when Speaker Johnson's chamber may require Democratic support. President Trump's imminent executive order to resume pay for unpaid DHS workers, including essential TSA personnel, eases worker hardship without resolving the lapse, as airport delays persist and pressure mounts for a continuing resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.

The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,288,894
End Date
Mar 14, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How long will the DHS shutdown last?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3+ days" at 100%, followed by "5+ days" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How long will the DHS shutdown last?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How long will the DHS shutdown last?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How long will the DHS shutdown last?" is "3+ days" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "5+ days" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How long will the DHS shutdown last?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.