Market icon
Economy·Iran

Will gas hit__ by end of March?

Market icon
Economy·Iran

Will gas hit__ by end of March?

$551,363 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$551,363 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$83,587 Vol.

1%

↑ $4.50

$111,567 Vol.

1%

↑ $4.25

$56,606 Vol.

2%

↑ $4.00

$39,661 Vol.

72%

↓ $3.15

$21,026 Vol.

1%

↓ $3.10

$41,173 Vol.

<1%

↓ $3.05

$172,012 Vol.

1%

↓ $3.00

$25,731 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".U.S. national average gasoline prices have surged to around $4.00 per gallon as of late March 2026, up over 25% from early-month levels near $3.00, primarily driven by crude oil benchmarks exceeding $99 per barrel for WTI amid escalating Middle East tensions including Iran-related disruptions. EIA data shows gasoline inventories declining 2.6 million barrels for the week ending March 20, compounded by seasonal spring break demand and refinery maintenance constraints. This upward momentum reflects trader consensus on sustained supply tightness, with RBOB gasoline futures climbing above $3.25/gallon. As the market nears end-of-March resolution, weekend pump surveys and any geopolitical de-escalation could trigger final volatility, while broader inflation impacts loom from higher energy input costs.

U.S. national average gasoline prices have surged to around $4.00 per gallon as of late March 2026, up over 25% from early-month levels near $3.00, primarily driven by crude oil benchmarks exceeding $99 per barrel for WTI amid escalating Middle East tensions including Iran-related disruptions. EIA data shows gasoline inventories declining 2.6 million barrels for the week ending March 20, compounded by seasonal spring break demand and refinery maintenance constraints. This upward momentum reflects trader consensus on sustained supply tightness, with RBOB gasoline futures climbing above $3.25/gallon. As the market nears end-of-March resolution, weekend pump surveys and any geopolitical de-escalation could trigger final volatility, while broader inflation impacts loom from higher energy input costs.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and March 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first two digits of the reported price (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.157, this market will resolve to the "$3.15" bracket). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automotive Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg.".U.S. national average gasoline prices have surged to around $4.00 per gallon as of late March 2026, up over 25% from early-month levels near $3.00, primarily driven by crude oil benchmarks exceeding $99 per barrel for WTI amid escalating Middle East tensions including Iran-related disruptions. EIA data shows gasoline inventories declining 2.6 million barrels for the week ending March 20, compounded by seasonal spring break demand and refinery maintenance constraints. This upward momentum reflects trader consensus on sustained supply tightness, with RBOB gasoline futures climbing above $3.25/gallon. As the market nears end-of-March resolution, weekend pump surveys and any geopolitical de-escalation could trigger final volatility, while broader inflation impacts loom from higher energy input costs.

U.S. national average gasoline prices have surged to around $4.00 per gallon as of late March 2026, up over 25% from early-month levels near $3.00, primarily driven by crude oil benchmarks exceeding $99 per barrel for WTI amid escalating Middle East tensions including Iran-related disruptions. EIA data shows gasoline inventories declining 2.6 million barrels for the week ending March 20, compounded by seasonal spring break demand and refinery maintenance constraints. This upward momentum reflects trader consensus on sustained supply tightness, with RBOB gasoline futures climbing above $3.25/gallon. As the market nears end-of-March resolution, weekend pump surveys and any geopolitical de-escalation could trigger final volatility, while broader inflation impacts loom from higher energy input costs.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit__ by end of March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $3.75" at 100%, followed by "↑ $3.50" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will gas hit__ by end of March?" has generated $551.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will gas hit__ by end of March?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit__ by end of March?" is "↑ $3.75" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $3.50" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit__ by end of March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.