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Economy·Economic Policy

Bank of England decision in April?

Market icon
Economy·Economic Policy

Bank of England decision in April?

Apr 30

Jun 18

Apr 30

Jun 18

No change 73%

Increase 25.1%

25 bps decrease 1.1%

50+ bps decrease 1.0%

Polymarket

$181,728 Vol.

No change 73%

Increase 25.1%

25 bps decrease 1.1%

50+ bps decrease 1.0%

Polymarket

$181,728 Vol.

50+ bps decrease

$19,234 Vol.

1%

25 bps decrease

$79,139 Vol.

1%

No change

$44,493 Vol.

73%

Increase

$38,861 Vol.

25%

The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for April 2026 is scheduled to be released on April 30, 2026. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 73.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at the April 30, 2026, MPC meeting, reflecting sticky consumer price inflation holding at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—amid cooling but persistent services inflation at 4.3%. A notable 25.7% odds on a 25 basis points increase stem from recent Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, driving energy price surges and upending prior expectations of cuts, as echoed in J.P. Morgan's forecast for an extended pause through 2026. Wage growth at 3.8% (excluding bonuses) and unemployment steady at 5.2% support caution, with traders eyeing March CPI data due April 22 for potential shifts ahead of the decision.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 73.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at the April 30, 2026, MPC meeting, reflecting sticky consumer price inflation holding at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—amid cooling but persistent services inflation at 4.3%. A notable 25.7% odds on a 25 basis points increase stem from recent Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, driving energy price surges and upending prior expectations of cuts, as echoed in J.P. Morgan's forecast for an extended pause through 2026. Wage growth at 3.8% (excluding bonuses) and unemployment steady at 5.2% support caution, with traders eyeing March CPI data due April 22 for potential shifts ahead of the decision.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for April 2026 is scheduled to be released on April 30, 2026. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 73.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at the April 30, 2026, MPC meeting, reflecting sticky consumer price inflation holding at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—amid cooling but persistent services inflation at 4.3%. A notable 25.7% odds on a 25 basis points increase stem from recent Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, driving energy price surges and upending prior expectations of cuts, as echoed in J.P. Morgan's forecast for an extended pause through 2026. Wage growth at 3.8% (excluding bonuses) and unemployment steady at 5.2% support caution, with traders eyeing March CPI data due April 22 for potential shifts ahead of the decision.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 73.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at the April 30, 2026, MPC meeting, reflecting sticky consumer price inflation holding at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—amid cooling but persistent services inflation at 4.3%. A notable 25.7% odds on a 25 basis points increase stem from recent Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict, driving energy price surges and upending prior expectations of cuts, as echoed in J.P. Morgan's forecast for an extended pause through 2026. Wage growth at 3.8% (excluding bonuses) and unemployment steady at 5.2% support caution, with traders eyeing March CPI data due April 22 for potential shifts ahead of the decision.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Bank of England decision in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No change" at 73%, followed by "Increase" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Bank of England decision in April?" has generated $181.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Bank of England decision in April?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Bank of England decision in April?" is "No change" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Increase" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Bank of England decision in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.