Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, daily vessel transits collapsed from a pre-conflict average of 130 to under 10 in March, with MarineTraffic and Kpler data recording just 220 total crossings—111 liquid tankers, 82 dry bulk, and 27 LPG carriers, but zero LNG. This disruption, down 95% from norms, has driven Middle East-to-Asia VLCC freight rates to multi-decade peaks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and stranded over 1,000 merchant vessels by mid-March. Trader sentiment prices in sustained supply risks for 20% of global oil flows, though a late-March uptick to 11 ships on March 31 hints at controlled resumption; resolution hinges on authoritative AIS-confirmed tallies amid dark fleet maneuvers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$715,000 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
20+
No
40+
No
60+
No
80+
No
$715,000 Vol.
20+
$327,554 Vol.
No
40+
$117,509 Vol.
No
60+
$111,218 Vol.
No
80+
$158,718 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, daily vessel transits collapsed from a pre-conflict average of 130 to under 10 in March, with MarineTraffic and Kpler data recording just 220 total crossings—111 liquid tankers, 82 dry bulk, and 27 LPG carriers, but zero LNG. This disruption, down 95% from norms, has driven Middle East-to-Asia VLCC freight rates to multi-decade peaks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and stranded over 1,000 merchant vessels by mid-March. Trader sentiment prices in sustained supply risks for 20% of global oil flows, though a late-March uptick to 11 ships on March 31 hints at controlled resumption; resolution hinges on authoritative AIS-confirmed tallies amid dark fleet maneuvers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$715,000End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, daily vessel transits collapsed from a pre-conflict average of 130 to under 10 in March, with MarineTraffic and Kpler data recording just 220 total crossings—111 liquid tankers, 82 dry bulk, and 27 LPG carriers, but zero LNG. This disruption, down 95% from norms, has driven Middle East-to-Asia VLCC freight rates to multi-decade peaks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and stranded over 1,000 merchant vessels by mid-March. Trader sentiment prices in sustained supply risks for 20% of global oil flows, though a late-March uptick to 11 ships on March 31 hints at controlled resumption; resolution hinges on authoritative AIS-confirmed tallies amid dark fleet maneuvers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$715,000End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis triggered by Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, daily vessel transits collapsed from a pre-conflict average of 130 to under 10 in March, with MarineTraffic and Kpler data recording just 220 total crossings—111 liquid tankers, 82 dry bulk, and 27 LPG carriers, but zero LNG. This disruption, down 95% from norms, has driven Middle East-to-Asia VLCC freight rates to multi-decade peaks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and stranded over 1,000 merchant vessels by mid-March. Trader sentiment prices in sustained supply risks for 20% of global oil flows, though a late-March uptick to 11 ships on March 31 hints at controlled resumption; resolution hinges on authoritative AIS-confirmed tallies amid dark fleet maneuvers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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