Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 10% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting a 95% collapse in daily vessel traffic to single digits since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, per IMF Portwatch data, with Iranian Revolutionary Guards enforcing selective tolls and passages for non-hostile flagged vessels like Pakistan's 20 approved ships. No day has exceeded low teens amid soaring war risk insurance premiums—now 5% of hull value—and tripled VLCC charter rates, driving Brent crude to $108 per barrel with heightened volatility. With March 31 imminent, US Navy escorts for 20 oil tankers announced March 30 offer a slim catalyst, but traders discount full counting in official arrivals data amid AIS blackouts and shadow fleet activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$602,884 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
20+
7%
40+
3%
60+
2%
80+
<1%
$602,884 Vol.
20+
$276,648 Vol.
7%
40+
$102,260 Vol.
3%
60+
$85,564 Vol.
2%
80+
$138,413 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 10% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting a 95% collapse in daily vessel traffic to single digits since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, per IMF Portwatch data, with Iranian Revolutionary Guards enforcing selective tolls and passages for non-hostile flagged vessels like Pakistan's 20 approved ships. No day has exceeded low teens amid soaring war risk insurance premiums—now 5% of hull value—and tripled VLCC charter rates, driving Brent crude to $108 per barrel with heightened volatility. With March 31 imminent, US Navy escorts for 20 oil tankers announced March 30 offer a slim catalyst, but traders discount full counting in official arrivals data amid AIS blackouts and shadow fleet activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$602,884End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 10% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting a 95% collapse in daily vessel traffic to single digits since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, per IMF Portwatch data, with Iranian Revolutionary Guards enforcing selective tolls and passages for non-hostile flagged vessels like Pakistan's 20 approved ships. No day has exceeded low teens amid soaring war risk insurance premiums—now 5% of hull value—and tripled VLCC charter rates, driving Brent crude to $108 per barrel with heightened volatility. With March 31 imminent, US Navy escorts for 20 oil tankers announced March 30 offer a slim catalyst, but traders discount full counting in official arrivals data amid AIS blackouts and shadow fleet activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$602,884End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 10% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting a 95% collapse in daily vessel traffic to single digits since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, per IMF Portwatch data, with Iranian Revolutionary Guards enforcing selective tolls and passages for non-hostile flagged vessels like Pakistan's 20 approved ships. No day has exceeded low teens amid soaring war risk insurance premiums—now 5% of hull value—and tripled VLCC charter rates, driving Brent crude to $108 per barrel with heightened volatility. With March 31 imminent, US Navy escorts for 20 oil tankers announced March 30 offer a slim catalyst, but traders discount full counting in official arrivals data amid AIS blackouts and shadow fleet activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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