Market icon

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

Market icon

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?

$602,884 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$602,884 Vol.

Polymarket

20+

$276,648 Vol.

7%

40+

$102,260 Vol.

3%

60+

$85,564 Vol.

2%

80+

$138,413 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 10% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting a 95% collapse in daily vessel traffic to single digits since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, per IMF Portwatch data, with Iranian Revolutionary Guards enforcing selective tolls and passages for non-hostile flagged vessels like Pakistan's 20 approved ships. No day has exceeded low teens amid soaring war risk insurance premiums—now 5% of hull value—and tripled VLCC charter rates, driving Brent crude to $108 per barrel with heightened volatility. With March 31 imminent, US Navy escorts for 20 oil tankers announced March 30 offer a slim catalyst, but traders discount full counting in official arrivals data amid AIS blackouts and shadow fleet activity.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 10% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting a 95% collapse in daily vessel traffic to single digits since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, per IMF Portwatch data, with Iranian Revolutionary Guards enforcing selective tolls and passages for non-hostile flagged vessels like Pakistan's 20 approved ships. No day has exceeded low teens amid soaring war risk insurance premiums—now 5% of hull value—and tripled VLCC charter rates, driving Brent crude to $108 per barrel with heightened volatility. With March 31 imminent, US Navy escorts for 20 oil tankers announced March 30 offer a slim catalyst, but traders discount full counting in official arrivals data amid AIS blackouts and shadow fleet activity.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 10% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting a 95% collapse in daily vessel traffic to single digits since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, per IMF Portwatch data, with Iranian Revolutionary Guards enforcing selective tolls and passages for non-hostile flagged vessels like Pakistan's 20 approved ships. No day has exceeded low teens amid soaring war risk insurance premiums—now 5% of hull value—and tripled VLCC charter rates, driving Brent crude to $108 per barrel with heightened volatility. With March 31 imminent, US Navy escorts for 20 oil tankers announced March 30 offer a slim catalyst, but traders discount full counting in official arrivals data amid AIS blackouts and shadow fleet activity.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 10% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, reflecting a 95% collapse in daily vessel traffic to single digits since the US-Iran war erupted on February 28, per IMF Portwatch data, with Iranian Revolutionary Guards enforcing selective tolls and passages for non-hostile flagged vessels like Pakistan's 20 approved ships. No day has exceeded low teens amid soaring war risk insurance premiums—now 5% of hull value—and tripled VLCC charter rates, driving Brent crude to $108 per barrel with heightened volatility. With March 31 imminent, US Navy escorts for 20 oil tankers announced March 30 offer a slim catalyst, but traders discount full counting in official arrivals data amid AIS blackouts and shadow fleet activity.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "20+" at 7%, followed by "40+" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?" has generated $602.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?" is "20+" at just 7%, with "40+" close behind at 3%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.