Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by US-Iran tensions since late February, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforcement of a selective toll and vetting regime has collapsed daily ship transits to single digits—four vessels on March 24 and roughly 11 over March 28 per Lloyd's List Intelligence and AIS data—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for 20+ transits on any March day. This disruption, representing 20% of global oil flows, has propelled Brent crude above $110/barrel and VLCC charter rates to multi-decade peaks exceeding $300,000/day amid surging war risk insurance premiums and Cape rerouting. Key upcoming catalyst: US Navy escort of 20 oil tankers starting March 31 morning, potentially influencing final-day volumes before market resolution via IMF Portwatch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$602,874 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
20+
6%
40+
3%
60+
2%
80+
<1%
$602,874 Vol.
20+
$276,637 Vol.
6%
40+
$102,260 Vol.
3%
60+
$85,564 Vol.
2%
80+
$138,413 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by US-Iran tensions since late February, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforcement of a selective toll and vetting regime has collapsed daily ship transits to single digits—four vessels on March 24 and roughly 11 over March 28 per Lloyd's List Intelligence and AIS data—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for 20+ transits on any March day. This disruption, representing 20% of global oil flows, has propelled Brent crude above $110/barrel and VLCC charter rates to multi-decade peaks exceeding $300,000/day amid surging war risk insurance premiums and Cape rerouting. Key upcoming catalyst: US Navy escort of 20 oil tankers starting March 31 morning, potentially influencing final-day volumes before market resolution via IMF Portwatch.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$602,874End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by US-Iran tensions since late February, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforcement of a selective toll and vetting regime has collapsed daily ship transits to single digits—four vessels on March 24 and roughly 11 over March 28 per Lloyd's List Intelligence and AIS data—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for 20+ transits on any March day. This disruption, representing 20% of global oil flows, has propelled Brent crude above $110/barrel and VLCC charter rates to multi-decade peaks exceeding $300,000/day amid surging war risk insurance premiums and Cape rerouting. Key upcoming catalyst: US Navy escort of 20 oil tankers starting March 31 morning, potentially influencing final-day volumes before market resolution via IMF Portwatch.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$602,874End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis sparked by US-Iran tensions since late February, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforcement of a selective toll and vetting regime has collapsed daily ship transits to single digits—four vessels on March 24 and roughly 11 over March 28 per Lloyd's List Intelligence and AIS data—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward low implied probabilities for 20+ transits on any March day. This disruption, representing 20% of global oil flows, has propelled Brent crude above $110/barrel and VLCC charter rates to multi-decade peaks exceeding $300,000/day amid surging war risk insurance premiums and Cape rerouting. Key upcoming catalyst: US Navy escort of 20 oil tankers starting March 31 morning, potentially influencing final-day volumes before market resolution via IMF Portwatch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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