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Politics·Middle East

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Market icon
Politics·Middle East

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

$7,326,632 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,326,632 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$4,633,607 Vol.

3%

April 7

$162,834 Vol.

15%

April 15

$545,538 Vol.

29%

April 30

$1,249,315 Vol.

47%

June 30

$544,190 Vol.

74%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Secretary of State Marco Rubio's March 27 statement that the US expects its military operation in Iran to conclude "in weeks, not months" has driven Polymarket trader consensus toward higher probabilities for a Trump announcement ending operations, with 47% implied odds by April 30 and 74% by June 30 in the high-volume market exceeding $7 million. This follows President Trump's March 26 extension of a 10-day pause on strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, amid US-Iran diplomatic talks and reports of Iran's military capabilities being severely degraded since the February 28 US-Israel airstrikes initiated the conflict. Persistent proxy attacks by Iran-backed Houthis and Hezbollah sustain uncertainty, while upcoming negotiations and Hormuz Strait tensions could accelerate de-escalation or prompt renewed escalation.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's March 27 statement that the US expects its military operation in Iran to conclude "in weeks, not months" has driven Polymarket trader consensus toward higher probabilities for a Trump announcement ending operations, with 47% implied odds by April 30 and 74% by June 30 in the high-volume market exceeding $7 million. This follows President Trump's March 26 extension of a 10-day pause on strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, amid US-Iran diplomatic talks and reports of Iran's military capabilities being severely degraded since the February 28 US-Israel airstrikes initiated the conflict. Persistent proxy attacks by Iran-backed Houthis and Hezbollah sustain uncertainty, while upcoming negotiations and Hormuz Strait tensions could accelerate de-escalation or prompt renewed escalation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Secretary of State Marco Rubio's March 27 statement that the US expects its military operation in Iran to conclude "in weeks, not months" has driven Polymarket trader consensus toward higher probabilities for a Trump announcement ending operations, with 47% implied odds by April 30 and 74% by June 30 in the high-volume market exceeding $7 million. This follows President Trump's March 26 extension of a 10-day pause on strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, amid US-Iran diplomatic talks and reports of Iran's military capabilities being severely degraded since the February 28 US-Israel airstrikes initiated the conflict. Persistent proxy attacks by Iran-backed Houthis and Hezbollah sustain uncertainty, while upcoming negotiations and Hormuz Strait tensions could accelerate de-escalation or prompt renewed escalation.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio's March 27 statement that the US expects its military operation in Iran to conclude "in weeks, not months" has driven Polymarket trader consensus toward higher probabilities for a Trump announcement ending operations, with 47% implied odds by April 30 and 74% by June 30 in the high-volume market exceeding $7 million. This follows President Trump's March 26 extension of a 10-day pause on strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, amid US-Iran diplomatic talks and reports of Iran's military capabilities being severely degraded since the February 28 US-Israel airstrikes initiated the conflict. Persistent proxy attacks by Iran-backed Houthis and Hezbollah sustain uncertainty, while upcoming negotiations and Hormuz Strait tensions could accelerate de-escalation or prompt renewed escalation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 74%, followed by "April 30" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?" has generated $7.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?" is "June 30" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 30" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.