Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors April 9 as the end date for military action against Iran, reflecting no verified US or Israeli strikes, airstrikes, or other attacks since that day amid a fragile Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire agreed April 7. Extensive prior operations, including Operation Epic Fury, had targeted Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure, significantly degrading capabilities as confirmed by US State Department assessments. Recent diplomatic failure in Islamabad talks on April 12—over nuclear pathways and Strait of Hormuz reopening—has Trump weighing limited strikes and a naval blockade, per WSJ reporting. Absent new verifiable military actions like airstrikes before April 30, this positioning holds firm, though ceasefire expiration around April 22 poses escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 9 100.0%
Before April <1%
April 1 <1%
April 2 <1%
$19,562,004 Vol.
$19,562,004 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
No
April 1
No
April 2
No
April 3
No
April 4
No
April 5
No
April 6
No
April 7
No
April 8
No
April 9
Yes
April 10
No
April 11
No
April 12
No
April 13
No
April 14
No
April 15
No
April 16
No
April 17
No
April 18
No
April 19
No
April 20
No
April 21
No
April 22
No
April 23
No
April 24
No
April 25
No
April 26
No
April 27
No
April 28
No
April 29
No
April 30
No
Military action through April 30
No
April 9 100.0%
Before April <1%
April 1 <1%
April 2 <1%
$19,562,004 Vol.
$19,562,004 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Before April
$8,622 Vol.
No
April 1
$21,561 Vol.
No
April 2
$18,047 Vol.
No
April 3
$23,499 Vol.
No
April 4
$16,365 Vol.
No
April 5
$24,249 Vol.
No
April 6
$43,856 Vol.
No
April 7
$36,145 Vol.
No
April 8
$74,955 Vol.
No
April 9
$1,855,402 Vol.
Yes
April 10
$1,394,013 Vol.
No
April 11
$1,086,464 Vol.
No
April 12
$924,606 Vol.
No
April 13
$689,115 Vol.
No
April 14
$601,686 Vol.
No
April 15
$644,951 Vol.
No
April 16
$542,327 Vol.
No
April 17
$493,564 Vol.
No
April 18
$472,854 Vol.
No
April 19
$438,509 Vol.
No
April 20
$404,681 Vol.
No
April 21
$392,619 Vol.
No
April 22
$415,411 Vol.
No
April 23
$408,438 Vol.
No
April 24
$1,693,662 Vol.
No
April 25
$401,257 Vol.
No
April 26
$593,100 Vol.
No
April 27
$497,269 Vol.
No
April 28
$453,525 Vol.
No
April 29
$1,904,773 Vol.
No
April 30
$788,726 Vol.
No
Military action through April 30
$2,197,753 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors April 9 as the end date for military action against Iran, reflecting no verified US or Israeli strikes, airstrikes, or other attacks since that day amid a fragile Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire agreed April 7. Extensive prior operations, including Operation Epic Fury, had targeted Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure, significantly degrading capabilities as confirmed by US State Department assessments. Recent diplomatic failure in Islamabad talks on April 12—over nuclear pathways and Strait of Hormuz reopening—has Trump weighing limited strikes and a naval blockade, per WSJ reporting. Absent new verifiable military actions like airstrikes before April 30, this positioning holds firm, though ceasefire expiration around April 22 poses escalation risks.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Volume
$19,562,004End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors April 9 as the end date for military action against Iran, reflecting no verified US or Israeli strikes, airstrikes, or other attacks since that day amid a fragile Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire agreed April 7. Extensive prior operations, including Operation Epic Fury, had targeted Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure, significantly degrading capabilities as confirmed by US State Department assessments. Recent diplomatic failure in Islamabad talks on April 12—over nuclear pathways and Strait of Hormuz reopening—has Trump weighing limited strikes and a naval blockade, per WSJ reporting. Absent new verifiable military actions like airstrikes before April 30, this positioning holds firm, though ceasefire expiration around April 22 poses escalation risks.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action through April 30."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$19,562,004End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors April 9 as the end date for military action against Iran, reflecting no verified US or Israeli strikes, airstrikes, or other attacks since that day amid a fragile Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire agreed April 7. Extensive prior operations, including Operation Epic Fury, had targeted Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and infrastructure, significantly degrading capabilities as confirmed by US State Department assessments. Recent diplomatic failure in Islamabad talks on April 12—over nuclear pathways and Strait of Hormuz reopening—has Trump weighing limited strikes and a naval blockade, per WSJ reporting. Absent new verifiable military actions like airstrikes before April 30, this positioning holds firm, though ceasefire expiration around April 22 poses escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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