US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command centers, missile sites, and factories in Tehran, continue as part of Operation Epic Fury, now over five weeks since the February 28 launch that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent US intelligence confirms Iran retains significant missile capabilities despite a 90% drop in launches and 95% reduction in proxy attacks, per Pentagon reports, sustaining trader focus on prolonged operations. Iran rejected a US diplomatic proposal as "maximalist" on March 25, vows retaliation for infrastructure hits like Kuwait facilities, and disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, while backchannel talks via Pakistan persist amid threats of ground incursions. Upcoming negotiations or fresh strikes could signal de-escalation or further escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$322,833 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
April 15
13%
April 30
37%
May 31
69%
June 30
80%
$322,833 Vol.
April 15
$33,486 Vol.
13%
April 30
$20,727 Vol.
37%
May 31
$11,272 Vol.
69%
June 30
$9,116 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command centers, missile sites, and factories in Tehran, continue as part of Operation Epic Fury, now over five weeks since the February 28 launch that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent US intelligence confirms Iran retains significant missile capabilities despite a 90% drop in launches and 95% reduction in proxy attacks, per Pentagon reports, sustaining trader focus on prolonged operations. Iran rejected a US diplomatic proposal as "maximalist" on March 25, vows retaliation for infrastructure hits like Kuwait facilities, and disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, while backchannel talks via Pakistan persist amid threats of ground incursions. Upcoming negotiations or fresh strikes could signal de-escalation or further escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$322,833End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command centers, missile sites, and factories in Tehran, continue as part of Operation Epic Fury, now over five weeks since the February 28 launch that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent US intelligence confirms Iran retains significant missile capabilities despite a 90% drop in launches and 95% reduction in proxy attacks, per Pentagon reports, sustaining trader focus on prolonged operations. Iran rejected a US diplomatic proposal as "maximalist" on March 25, vows retaliation for infrastructure hits like Kuwait facilities, and disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, while backchannel talks via Pakistan persist amid threats of ground incursions. Upcoming negotiations or fresh strikes could signal de-escalation or further escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$322,833End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command centers, missile sites, and factories in Tehran, continue as part of Operation Epic Fury, now over five weeks since the February 28 launch that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent US intelligence confirms Iran retains significant missile capabilities despite a 90% drop in launches and 95% reduction in proxy attacks, per Pentagon reports, sustaining trader focus on prolonged operations. Iran rejected a US diplomatic proposal as "maximalist" on March 25, vows retaliation for infrastructure hits like Kuwait facilities, and disrupts Strait of Hormuz shipping, while backchannel talks via Pakistan persist amid threats of ground incursions. Upcoming negotiations or fresh strikes could signal de-escalation or further escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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