Israel’s October 27, 2026, legislative election remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on Netanyahu’s tenure. Recent polls show his Likud-led bloc and the main opposition grouping essentially tied near 52 seats each, well short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. Both sides center their campaigns on responsibility for the October 7, 2023, security failures and subsequent military outcomes, with Netanyahu emphasizing external threats and his role in operations against Iran and Hezbollah. Post-election coalition talks could extend into December or beyond, allowing Netanyahu to remain in office as caretaker even if his bloc falls short. This timeline and the narrow polling gap explain why markets currently assign roughly 40 percent probability to him departing by year-end.