Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, route restrictions, and attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels remain the core driver of trader assessments, alongside proxy actions by Iran-backed Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The most recent major development is the August 12 Houthi strike on an Egyptian cargo ship that killed four crew members—the first confirmed fatalities in such attacks since the 2026 conflict began—while U.S. forces struck a vessel heading toward an Iranian port. Direct Iran-U.S. exchanges have abated since early August amid ongoing Iran-Oman talks on Strait administration following the July breakdown of the June MOU. These dynamics, combined with potential U.S. responses and scheduled diplomatic contacts, shape implied probabilities for successful Iranian or proxy strikes on specific dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$112,828 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
August 11
1%
August 12
1%
August 13
63%
August 14
21%
August 15
10%
August 16
12%
August 17
9%
August 18
8%
August 19
11%
August 20
11%
August 21
9%
August 22
9%
August 23
13%
August 24
12%
August 25
10%
August 26
7%
August 27
8%
August 28
10%
August 29
6%
August 30
11%
August 31
11%
$112,828 Vol.
August 11
$1,334 Vol.
1%
August 12
$819 Vol.
1%
August 13
$6,625 Vol.
63%
August 14
$5,667 Vol.
21%
August 15
$4,549 Vol.
10%
August 16
$1,611 Vol.
12%
August 17
$384 Vol.
9%
August 18
$238 Vol.
8%
August 19
$3,099 Vol.
11%
August 20
$440 Vol.
11%
August 21
$889 Vol.
9%
August 22
$300 Vol.
9%
August 23
$2,265 Vol.
13%
August 24
$6,205 Vol.
12%
August 25
$51 Vol.
10%
August 26
$584 Vol.
7%
August 27
$203 Vol.
8%
August 28
$407 Vol.
10%
August 29
$883 Vol.
6%
August 30
$190 Vol.
11%
August 31
$563 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, route restrictions, and attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels remain the core driver of trader assessments, alongside proxy actions by Iran-backed Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The most recent major development is the August 12 Houthi strike on an Egyptian cargo ship that killed four crew members—the first confirmed fatalities in such attacks since the 2026 conflict began—while U.S. forces struck a vessel heading toward an Iranian port. Direct Iran-U.S. exchanges have abated since early August amid ongoing Iran-Oman talks on Strait administration following the July breakdown of the June MOU. These dynamics, combined with potential U.S. responses and scheduled diplomatic contacts, shape implied probabilities for successful Iranian or proxy strikes on specific dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$112,828End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, route restrictions, and attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels remain the core driver of trader assessments, alongside proxy actions by Iran-backed Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The most recent major development is the August 12 Houthi strike on an Egyptian cargo ship that killed four crew members—the first confirmed fatalities in such attacks since the 2026 conflict began—while U.S. forces struck a vessel heading toward an Iranian port. Direct Iran-U.S. exchanges have abated since early August amid ongoing Iran-Oman talks on Strait administration following the July breakdown of the June MOU. These dynamics, combined with potential U.S. responses and scheduled diplomatic contacts, shape implied probabilities for successful Iranian or proxy strikes on specific dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$112,828End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, route restrictions, and attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels remain the core driver of trader assessments, alongside proxy actions by Iran-backed Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The most recent major development is the August 12 Houthi strike on an Egyptian cargo ship that killed four crew members—the first confirmed fatalities in such attacks since the 2026 conflict began—while U.S. forces struck a vessel heading toward an Iranian port. Direct Iran-U.S. exchanges have abated since early August amid ongoing Iran-Oman talks on Strait administration following the July breakdown of the June MOU. These dynamics, combined with potential U.S. responses and scheduled diplomatic contacts, shape implied probabilities for successful Iranian or proxy strikes on specific dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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