Recent diplomatic momentum between the U.S. and Iran, including indirect talks mediated by Qatar after the November 3 midterms, has reinforced trader expectations against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027. President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have publicly stated that major combat operations are unnecessary or highly unlikely if progress continues on nuclear issues and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, citing the effectiveness of the existing naval blockade and economic sanctions. Iranian officials continue to condition further talks on seven specific demands, while U.S. actions remain focused on targeted strikes, asset freezes, and pressure rather than troop deployments for occupation. This approach aligns with historical patterns where sustained sanctions and limited military measures have substituted for broader invasions, keeping implied probabilities for "No" elevated.