Ongoing diplomatic negotiations mediated by Qatar, including recent exchanges of proposals on nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz, combined with President Trump's post-midterm statements that renewed major combat is "highly unlikely" and that he prefers a diplomatic path, underpin the 91.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion before 2027. Limited U.S. strikes on Iranian air defenses in early November and continued enforcement of the naval blockade reflect calibrated pressure rather than preparation for ground operations. A full-scale invasion would require a significant escalation beyond current airstrikes and sanctions enforcement. Late-breaking Iranian provocations or collapse of talks could still shift probabilities, though primary sources show no such developments in the past month.