US officials have prioritized diplomacy and economic measures, including the naval blockade and sanctions, over large-scale military action against Iran in recent weeks. President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have stated that renewed major combat operations appear unnecessary and highly unlikely if talks advance on Iran's nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Qatari-mediated negotiations continuing in Switzerland and elsewhere despite persistent disagreements over preconditions. These developments, following the November midterms, have reinforced trader expectations that the United States will not launch an offensive to establish territorial control by the end of 2026. A sudden collapse in talks could still alter the outlook, though current positioning favors de-escalation through existing channels.