Ongoing diplomatic negotiations mediated by Qatar have intensified in recent days, with President Trump stating on November 9 that renewed U.S. military attacks on Iran are highly unlikely if Tehran advances toward a nuclear agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump met Qatari officials at the White House and indicated no immediate need for further strikes, citing positive momentum and Gulf allies’ preference for de-escalation, even as the U.S. maintains its naval blockade and rejects Iran’s seven preconditions. Iranian officials continue maximalist demands while showing limited private flexibility on nuclear issues. These developments, following post-midterm restraint on large-scale operations, underpin trader consensus against a full-scale U.S. invasion before 2027, though scheduled talks and force posture could shift dynamics if diplomacy stalls.