Recent diplomatic momentum and U.S. President Donald Trump’s public statements have reinforced trader expectations against a full U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027. Following the November 2026 midterms, Trump cited appeals from Gulf states and Qatar-mediated talks as reasons to defer fresh strikes, while maintaining the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Ongoing limited U.S. and Israeli operations have focused on air and naval targets rather than ground forces, consistent with prior signals ruling out major troop deployments. Domestic political pressures, including congressional shifts and public polling favoring de-escalation, further constrain escalation timelines. With only weeks remaining until year-end and active but inconclusive negotiations underway, the current 91.5% implied probability on “No” aligns with the absence of confirmed invasion preparations or triggering events.