Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.4% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 and the ensuing war. The Assembly of Experts swiftly elected Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, consolidating clerical and IRGC control amid ongoing airstrikes degrading Iran's missile capabilities but sparking no mass defections or uprisings. Pahlavi's March 28 CPAC speech positioning himself as transitional leader drew diaspora enthusiasm but limited domestic support, with opposition fragmented per recent analyses. Escalation risks persist, though regime survival precedents amid external pressure underpin high barriers to monarchy restoration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoReza Pahlavi liderará o Irã em 2026?
Reza Pahlavi liderará o Irã em 2026?
Sim
$912,113 Vol.
$912,113 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$912,113 Vol.
$912,113 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.4% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 and the ensuing war. The Assembly of Experts swiftly elected Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, consolidating clerical and IRGC control amid ongoing airstrikes degrading Iran's missile capabilities but sparking no mass defections or uprisings. Pahlavi's March 28 CPAC speech positioning himself as transitional leader drew diaspora enthusiasm but limited domestic support, with opposition fragmented per recent analyses. Escalation risks persist, though regime survival precedents amid external pressure underpin high barriers to monarchy restoration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Volume
$912,113Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.4% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 and the ensuing war. The Assembly of Experts swiftly elected Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, consolidating clerical and IRGC control amid ongoing airstrikes degrading Iran's missile capabilities but sparking no mass defections or uprisings. Pahlavi's March 28 CPAC speech positioning himself as transitional leader drew diaspora enthusiasm but limited domestic support, with opposition fragmented per recent analyses. Escalation risks persist, though regime survival precedents amid external pressure underpin high barriers to monarchy restoration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$912,113Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.4% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 and the ensuing war. The Assembly of Experts swiftly elected Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by early March, consolidating clerical and IRGC control amid ongoing airstrikes degrading Iran's missile capabilities but sparking no mass defections or uprisings. Pahlavi's March 28 CPAC speech positioning himself as transitional leader drew diaspora enthusiasm but limited domestic support, with opposition fragmented per recent analyses. Escalation risks persist, though regime survival precedents amid external pressure underpin high barriers to monarchy restoration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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