Recent diplomatic activity has sustained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire first brokered in early April and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent catalyst occurred when Trump postponed planned military strikes against Iran following a new proposal from Tehran and requests from Gulf leaders, amid ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions relief. Intermittent violations, including drone activity and limited exchanges, have tested the truce, yet no major escalation has resumed. Traders monitor statements from Washington and Tehran alongside any scheduled diplomatic contacts or deadlines that could either solidify the pause or trigger renewed hostilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNOVO
$346,775 Vol.
May 20
96%
May 21
86%
May 22
75%
May 24
68%
May 27
55%
May 31
46%
June 7
39%
June 15
37%
June 30
35%
July 31
30%
December 31
24%
$346,775 Vol.
May 20
$98,302 Vol.
96%
May 21
$109,038 Vol.
86%
May 22
$53,223 Vol.
75%
May 24
$28,491 Vol.
68%
May 27
$21,121 Vol.
55%
May 31
$15,022 Vol.
46%
June 7
$4,662 Vol.
39%
June 15
$4,941 Vol.
37%
June 30
$7,739 Vol.
35%
July 31
$6,156 Vol.
30%
December 31
$7,987 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic activity has sustained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire first brokered in early April and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent catalyst occurred when Trump postponed planned military strikes against Iran following a new proposal from Tehran and requests from Gulf leaders, amid ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions relief. Intermittent violations, including drone activity and limited exchanges, have tested the truce, yet no major escalation has resumed. Traders monitor statements from Washington and Tehran alongside any scheduled diplomatic contacts or deadlines that could either solidify the pause or trigger renewed hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$346,775Mercado Aberto
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic activity has sustained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire first brokered in early April and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent catalyst occurred when Trump postponed planned military strikes against Iran following a new proposal from Tehran and requests from Gulf leaders, amid ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions relief. Intermittent violations, including drone activity and limited exchanges, have tested the truce, yet no major escalation has resumed. Traders monitor statements from Washington and Tehran alongside any scheduled diplomatic contacts or deadlines that could either solidify the pause or trigger renewed hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$346,775Mercado Aberto
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic activity has sustained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire first brokered in early April and later extended indefinitely by President Trump. The most recent catalyst occurred when Trump postponed planned military strikes against Iran following a new proposal from Tehran and requests from Gulf leaders, amid ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions relief. Intermittent violations, including drone activity and limited exchanges, have tested the truce, yet no major escalation has resumed. Traders monitor statements from Washington and Tehran alongside any scheduled diplomatic contacts or deadlines that could either solidify the pause or trigger renewed hostilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions