Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast since mid-September 2026, including control of Mocha port and Mayyun (Perim) Island, have positioned the group to threaten commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting a Saudi-backed Yemeni government counteroffensive in early October that produced disputed claims of regained ground. Shipping continues without formal closure, with daily transits averaging 26–32 vessels—roughly 80% of prior-year levels—under a Houthi embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels and elevated war-risk insurance. Broader regional dynamics, including the earlier effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have increased reliance on the Red Sea route for Saudi oil exports while raising the potential for escalation through missile or drone incidents. Recent naval escorts and carrier schedule adjustments reflect ongoing risk assessments amid active fighting and no confirmed attacks on non-Saudi commercial traffic since August.