US-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have centered on the disposition of Iran’s estimated 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, much of which remains buried or inaccessible at damaged sites including Isfahan and Natanz after 2025-2026 US and Israeli strikes. The interim agreement extended a ceasefire and launched 60-day technical talks on downblending or removing the material under IAEA supervision, with US officials indicating any final deal would require its destruction or transfer. However, Iran has publicly rejected reports of agreeing to ship enriched uranium abroad, while IAEA access to enrichment sites remains restricted and verification of the full stockpile is incomplete. No official US confirmation of physical possession has occurred, and trader prices reflect low implied probabilities of resolution by year-end amid ongoing diplomatic hurdles and potential military contingencies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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