**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the slow and incomplete progress following the June 17, 2026, Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).** The MOU established a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, reconstruction financing, and related issues, with paragraph 14 explicitly calling for any final agreement to receive binding UN Security Council endorsement. Technical talks began in late June in Switzerland, producing working groups on nuclear matters and some initial steps such as IAEA-supervised down-blending of enriched uranium stockpiles. However, core disagreements persist on uranium enrichment ceilings, long-term suspension periods, full inspection access, missile programs, and the scope of sanctions termination. Regional complications, including ongoing Israel-Hezbollah tensions in Lebanon (outside the MOU framework), have added friction. Earlier UN sanctions snapback measures from 2025 remain relevant context, and while Russia has signaled openness to a UNSC resolution once a deal is finalized, no comprehensive agreement has emerged by early September 2026. The tight remaining timeline, combined with the historical length of similar negotiations and verification challenges, underpins the current implied probability favoring no resolution by year-end.
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UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
15% peluang
$217,591 Vol.
$217,591 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
15% peluang
$217,591 Vol.
$217,591 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the slow and incomplete progress following the June 17, 2026, Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).**
The MOU established a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, reconstruction financing, and related issues, with paragraph 14 explicitly calling for any final agreement to receive binding UN Security Council endorsement. Technical talks began in late June in Switzerland, producing working groups on nuclear matters and some initial steps such as IAEA-supervised down-blending of enriched uranium stockpiles. However, core disagreements persist on uranium enrichment ceilings, long-term suspension periods, full inspection access, missile programs, and the scope of sanctions termination.
Regional complications, including ongoing Israel-Hezbollah tensions in Lebanon (outside the MOU framework), have added friction. Earlier UN sanctions snapback measures from 2025 remain relevant context, and while Russia has signaled openness to a UNSC resolution once a deal is finalized, no comprehensive agreement has emerged by early September 2026. The tight remaining timeline, combined with the historical length of similar negotiations and verification challenges, underpins the current implied probability favoring no resolution by year-end.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
Volume
$217,591Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the slow and incomplete progress following the June 17, 2026, Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).**
The MOU established a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, reconstruction financing, and related issues, with paragraph 14 explicitly calling for any final agreement to receive binding UN Security Council endorsement. Technical talks began in late June in Switzerland, producing working groups on nuclear matters and some initial steps such as IAEA-supervised down-blending of enriched uranium stockpiles. However, core disagreements persist on uranium enrichment ceilings, long-term suspension periods, full inspection access, missile programs, and the scope of sanctions termination.
Regional complications, including ongoing Israel-Hezbollah tensions in Lebanon (outside the MOU framework), have added friction. Earlier UN sanctions snapback measures from 2025 remain relevant context, and while Russia has signaled openness to a UNSC resolution once a deal is finalized, no comprehensive agreement has emerged by early September 2026. The tight remaining timeline, combined with the historical length of similar negotiations and verification challenges, underpins the current implied probability favoring no resolution by year-end.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$217,591Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the slow and incomplete progress following the June 17, 2026, Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).** The MOU established a 60-day (extendable) window for negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, reconstruction financing, and related issues, with paragraph 14 explicitly calling for any final agreement to receive binding UN Security Council endorsement. Technical talks began in late June in Switzerland, producing working groups on nuclear matters and some initial steps such as IAEA-supervised down-blending of enriched uranium stockpiles. However, core disagreements persist on uranium enrichment ceilings, long-term suspension periods, full inspection access, missile programs, and the scope of sanctions termination. Regional complications, including ongoing Israel-Hezbollah tensions in Lebanon (outside the MOU framework), have added friction. Earlier UN sanctions snapback measures from 2025 remain relevant context, and while Russia has signaled openness to a UNSC resolution once a deal is finalized, no comprehensive agreement has emerged by early September 2026. The tight remaining timeline, combined with the historical length of similar negotiations and verification challenges, underpins the current implied probability favoring no resolution by year-end.
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