**Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, a June 2026 memorandum of understanding (MOU), and congressional skepticism shape trader views on approval odds.** The MOU, signed digitally by President Trump and Iranian officials, established a 60-day framework for negotiations on a ceasefire extension, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iran's nuclear program under IAEA monitoring. It deferred core sticking points such as uranium enrichment limits and stockpile disposition to later talks, prompting immediate bipartisan demands for briefings and oversight under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA). Republican lawmakers, including defense hawks, have publicly criticized the interim accord for insufficient concessions and warned that any final nuclear agreement would require Senate approval only if Iran fully dismantles enrichment capabilities and addresses missiles and regional activities—conditions Tehran has resisted. Multiple House and Senate war powers resolutions in June and July 2026 passed or advanced with bipartisan support, signaling frustration over executive-led hostilities that began earlier in the year and underscoring Congress's institutional push for greater control. No finalized agreement has been submitted for review as of mid-August 2026, and the compressed timeline leaves little room for the legislative process, amendments, or vote counts needed for passage amid partisan divisions and historical precedent of congressional resistance to Iran deals. These factors reinforce the trader consensus reflected in current pricing.