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Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

Market icon
Politics·Mojtaba

Iran leadership change by...?

$5,801,935 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$5,801,935 Vol.

Polymarket

April 30

$1,483,499 Vol.

10%

May 31

$54,855 Vol.

15%

June 30

$34,976 Vol.

19%

December 31

$997,754 Vol.

34%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in early March 2026 during US-Israeli airstrikes amid escalating regional conflict, prompting the Assembly of Experts to swiftly elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by March 8. President Masoud Pezeshkian announced an interim leadership council involving himself and top officials to manage the transition, but Mojtaba now holds the supreme role. Trader sentiment hinges on Mojtaba's prolonged absence from public view—over three weeks without appearances—amid unverified reports of severe injuries from follow-up strikes, fueling speculation on regime stability. Ongoing military escalations, diplomatic stalemates, and internal power dynamics, including IRGC influence, could precipitate further changes, with no major developments in the past 48 hours.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,801,935
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in early March 2026 during US-Israeli airstrikes amid escalating regional conflict, prompting the Assembly of Experts to swiftly elect his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor by March 8. President Masoud Pezeshkian announced an interim leadership council involving himself and top officials to manage the transition, but Mojtaba now holds the supreme role. Trader sentiment hinges on Mojtaba's prolonged absence from public view—over three weeks without appearances—amid unverified reports of severe injuries from follow-up strikes, fueling speculation on regime stability. Ongoing military escalations, diplomatic stalemates, and internal power dynamics, including IRGC influence, could precipitate further changes, with no major developments in the past 48 hours.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,801,935
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

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Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

39%
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Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?

24%
Leadership Change
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Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?

10%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leadership change by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 34%, followed by "June 30" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leadership change by...?" has generated $5.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leadership change by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leadership change by...?" is "December 31" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leadership change by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.