Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israel strikes, remains out of public view amid confirmed injuries like a fractured foot and lacerations from the same attacks, fueling unverified rumors of exile or incapacity. Recent New York Times reporting from late April notes his seclusion in a secure hideout with medical staff, delegating to IRGC generals amid failed Islamabad talks and Strait of Hormuz tensions, where he has ordered stricter maritime controls and vowed nuclear safeguards as of early May. US intelligence confirms his ongoing strategic input via audio, with no evidence of departure despite opposition protests and Reza Pahlavi's transition calls; trader consensus reflects low near-term flight odds absent escalation or internal coup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,057,305 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
2%
June 30
6%
$1,057,305 Vol.
May 31
$60,597 Vol.
2%
June 30
$25,098 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israel strikes, remains out of public view amid confirmed injuries like a fractured foot and lacerations from the same attacks, fueling unverified rumors of exile or incapacity. Recent New York Times reporting from late April notes his seclusion in a secure hideout with medical staff, delegating to IRGC generals amid failed Islamabad talks and Strait of Hormuz tensions, where he has ordered stricter maritime controls and vowed nuclear safeguards as of early May. US intelligence confirms his ongoing strategic input via audio, with no evidence of departure despite opposition protests and Reza Pahlavi's transition calls; trader consensus reflects low near-term flight odds absent escalation or internal coup.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,057,305End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israel strikes, remains out of public view amid confirmed injuries like a fractured foot and lacerations from the same attacks, fueling unverified rumors of exile or incapacity. Recent New York Times reporting from late April notes his seclusion in a secure hideout with medical staff, delegating to IRGC generals amid failed Islamabad talks and Strait of Hormuz tensions, where he has ordered stricter maritime controls and vowed nuclear safeguards as of early May. US intelligence confirms his ongoing strategic input via audio, with no evidence of departure despite opposition protests and Reza Pahlavi's transition calls; trader consensus reflects low near-term flight odds absent escalation or internal coup.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,057,305End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israel strikes, remains out of public view amid confirmed injuries like a fractured foot and lacerations from the same attacks, fueling unverified rumors of exile or incapacity. Recent New York Times reporting from late April notes his seclusion in a secure hideout with medical staff, delegating to IRGC generals amid failed Islamabad talks and Strait of Hormuz tensions, where he has ordered stricter maritime controls and vowed nuclear safeguards as of early May. US intelligence confirms his ongoing strategic input via audio, with no evidence of departure despite opposition protests and Reza Pahlavi's transition calls; trader consensus reflects low near-term flight odds absent escalation or internal coup.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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