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Economy·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of August?

icon for Will gas hit __ by end of August?
Economy·AAA

Will gas hit __ by end of August?

Aug 31

Aug 31

NEW
Aug 31, 2026
Polymarket

$8,632 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$2,300 Vol.

4%

↑ $4.75

$282 Vol.

9%

↑ $4.50

$2,090 Vol.

12%

↑ $4.25

$1,576 Vol.

26%

↓ $3.90

$412 Vol.

36%

↓ $3.70

$1,502 Vol.

25%

↓ $3.50

$150 Vol.

8%

↓ $3.25

$18 Vol.

12%

↓ $3.00

$68 Vol.

5%

↓ $2.50

$235 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent developments in the Middle East, including disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and refinery capacity constraints tied to regional conflicts, have elevated crude oil input costs and crack spreads, supporting U.S. retail gasoline prices near $4.06 per gallon as of mid-August 2026. Strong summer driving demand and seasonal blending requirements have compounded these pressures, with analysts noting potential for Labor Day highs if supply tightness persists. High natural gas storage levels and record production cap Henry Hub prices around $2.80/MMBtu, but gasoline markets reflect tighter downstream fundamentals. Traders watch upcoming EIA inventory data and any diplomatic progress on export routes for near-term swings ahead of month-end resolution. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital commitments reflecting these supply and demand dynamics amid inherent geopolitical uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$8,632
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Recent developments in the Middle East, including disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and refinery capacity constraints tied to regional conflicts, have elevated crude oil input costs and crack spreads, supporting U.S. retail gasoline prices near $4.06 per gallon as of mid-August 2026. Strong summer driving demand and seasonal blending requirements have compounded these pressures, with analysts noting potential for Labor Day highs if supply tightness persists. High natural gas storage levels and record production cap Henry Hub prices around $2.80/MMBtu, but gasoline markets reflect tighter downstream fundamentals. Traders watch upcoming EIA inventory data and any diplomatic progress on export routes for near-term swings ahead of month-end resolution. Market-implied odds aggregate real capital commitments reflecting these supply and demand dynamics amid inherent geopolitical uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$8,632
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:23 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit __ by end of August?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ $3.90" at 36%, followed by "↑ $4.25" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will gas hit __ by end of August?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of August?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit __ by end of August?" is "↓ $3.90" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $4.25" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit __ by end of August?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.