Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures, including the March assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli airstrikes and ongoing 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis and war escalation. Despite widespread unrest and external military actions weakening proxies like Hezbollah, security forces have maintained loyalty, suppressing dissent without triggering mass defections or revolution. Recent analyses note fading civilian hopes for regime change four days into sustained strikes, with the conflict potentially rallying nationalist support rather than hastening collapse. With nine months until 2027 resolution, traders price significant barriers to overthrow absent broader institutional breakdown or foreign invasion, though diplomatic talks or intensified unrest could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$11,855,083 Vol.
$11,855,083 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$11,855,083 Vol.
$11,855,083 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures, including the March assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli airstrikes and ongoing 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis and war escalation. Despite widespread unrest and external military actions weakening proxies like Hezbollah, security forces have maintained loyalty, suppressing dissent without triggering mass defections or revolution. Recent analyses note fading civilian hopes for regime change four days into sustained strikes, with the conflict potentially rallying nationalist support rather than hastening collapse. With nine months until 2027 resolution, traders price significant barriers to overthrow absent broader institutional breakdown or foreign invasion, though diplomatic talks or intensified unrest could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$11,855,083End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures, including the March assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli airstrikes and ongoing 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis and war escalation. Despite widespread unrest and external military actions weakening proxies like Hezbollah, security forces have maintained loyalty, suppressing dissent without triggering mass defections or revolution. Recent analyses note fading civilian hopes for regime change four days into sustained strikes, with the conflict potentially rallying nationalist support rather than hastening collapse. With nine months until 2027 resolution, traders price significant barriers to overthrow absent broader institutional breakdown or foreign invasion, though diplomatic talks or intensified unrest could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,855,088End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid severe pressures, including the March assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli airstrikes and ongoing 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis and war escalation. Despite widespread unrest and external military actions weakening proxies like Hezbollah, security forces have maintained loyalty, suppressing dissent without triggering mass defections or revolution. Recent analyses note fading civilian hopes for regime change four days into sustained strikes, with the conflict potentially rallying nationalist support rather than hastening collapse. With nine months until 2027 resolution, traders price significant barriers to overthrow absent broader institutional breakdown or foreign invasion, though diplomatic talks or intensified unrest could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions