Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.4% for Iran sabotaging undersea internet cables by April 30, reflecting the absence of any verified actions despite late-March threats from Iranian officials to target submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. These warnings, issued around March 23 amid IRGC naval operations and regional airstrikes, aimed at asymmetric pressure on Gulf states hosting US forces but have not materialized into sabotage over the past three weeks, deterred by mutual reliance on the cables for global data traffic—including Iran's own connectivity—and heightened naval patrols. With just 12 days remaining, low execution risk prevails, though sudden escalation, Houthi proxy attacks, or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?
$97,154 Vol.
$97,154 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$97,154 Vol.
$97,154 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.4% for Iran sabotaging undersea internet cables by April 30, reflecting the absence of any verified actions despite late-March threats from Iranian officials to target submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. These warnings, issued around March 23 amid IRGC naval operations and regional airstrikes, aimed at asymmetric pressure on Gulf states hosting US forces but have not materialized into sabotage over the past three weeks, deterred by mutual reliance on the cables for global data traffic—including Iran's own connectivity—and heightened naval patrols. With just 12 days remaining, low execution risk prevails, though sudden escalation, Houthi proxy attacks, or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ET
Volume
$97,154End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.4% for Iran sabotaging undersea internet cables by April 30, reflecting the absence of any verified actions despite late-March threats from Iranian officials to target submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. These warnings, issued around March 23 amid IRGC naval operations and regional airstrikes, aimed at asymmetric pressure on Gulf states hosting US forces but have not materialized into sabotage over the past three weeks, deterred by mutual reliance on the cables for global data traffic—including Iran's own connectivity—and heightened naval patrols. With just 12 days remaining, low execution risk prevails, though sudden escalation, Houthi proxy attacks, or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran or Iranian-aligned groups damage undersea internet cables between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only actions that cause physical damage to the undersea internet cable infrastructure, e.g., physical sabotage, such as cutting, dragging, or explosive attacks, will be considered. Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Qualifying incidents must occur in the region spanning the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Red Sea, including areas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula.
Attempted attacks that do not result in damage, or actions that are intercepted or fail to impact the cables, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Incidents which are broadly attributed to Iranian forces or Iranian-aligned groups will qualify regardless of the absence of definitive evidence or official Iranian denials.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$97,154End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 96.4% for Iran sabotaging undersea internet cables by April 30, reflecting the absence of any verified actions despite late-March threats from Iranian officials to target submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. These warnings, issued around March 23 amid IRGC naval operations and regional airstrikes, aimed at asymmetric pressure on Gulf states hosting US forces but have not materialized into sabotage over the past three weeks, deterred by mutual reliance on the cables for global data traffic—including Iran's own connectivity—and heightened naval patrols. With just 12 days remaining, low execution risk prevails, though sudden escalation, Houthi proxy attacks, or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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