Iran's post-war leadership transition has consolidated power around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei since his March 2026 election, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and senior officials pledging allegiance amid a fragile US-Israel ceasefire. Recent regime actions, including renewed internal security measures and diplomatic negotiations over sanctions relief and the Strait of Hormuz, reflect institutional stability rather than factional upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of internal challenges failed to materialize into sustained attempts. Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because verifiable developments show an emboldened regime prioritizing economic recovery and external talks over domestic power struggles. Late-breaking escalations in ceasefire enforcement or major leadership fractures remain the primary variables that could shift these odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,359,210 Vol.
$1,359,210 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$1,359,210 Vol.
$1,359,210 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-war leadership transition has consolidated power around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei since his March 2026 election, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and senior officials pledging allegiance amid a fragile US-Israel ceasefire. Recent regime actions, including renewed internal security measures and diplomatic negotiations over sanctions relief and the Strait of Hormuz, reflect institutional stability rather than factional upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of internal challenges failed to materialize into sustained attempts. Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because verifiable developments show an emboldened regime prioritizing economic recovery and external talks over domestic power struggles. Late-breaking escalations in ceasefire enforcement or major leadership fractures remain the primary variables that could shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,359,210Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-war leadership transition has consolidated power around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei since his March 2026 election, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and senior officials pledging allegiance amid a fragile US-Israel ceasefire. Recent regime actions, including renewed internal security measures and diplomatic negotiations over sanctions relief and the Strait of Hormuz, reflect institutional stability rather than factional upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of internal challenges failed to materialize into sustained attempts. Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because verifiable developments show an emboldened regime prioritizing economic recovery and external talks over domestic power struggles. Late-breaking escalations in ceasefire enforcement or major leadership fractures remain the primary variables that could shift these odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,359,210Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's post-war leadership transition has consolidated power around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei since his March 2026 election, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and senior officials pledging allegiance amid a fragile US-Israel ceasefire. Recent regime actions, including renewed internal security measures and diplomatic negotiations over sanctions relief and the Strait of Hormuz, reflect institutional stability rather than factional upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of internal challenges failed to materialize into sustained attempts. Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because verifiable developments show an emboldened regime prioritizing economic recovery and external talks over domestic power struggles. Late-breaking escalations in ceasefire enforcement or major leadership fractures remain the primary variables that could shift these odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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