Iran's post-war leadership transition and institutional continuity underpin trader expectations of no coup attempt by June 30. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role through established clerical and IRGC channels, with security forces maintaining control amid subsequent protests and economic pressures. Recent regime statements in late May emphasize preparations against hybrid threats and internal unrest while pursuing diplomatic negotiations from a position of perceived strength, including on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz issues. IRGC influence has grown without evidence of factional fractures escalating to overt challenges, and no verified coup plots have surfaced in credible reporting since earlier April rumors. This stability, reinforced by suppressed dissent and unified elite signaling, aligns with the market's strong consensus against near-term internal military action.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,357,934 Объем
$1,357,934 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$1,357,934 Объем
$1,357,934 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-war leadership transition and institutional continuity underpin trader expectations of no coup attempt by June 30. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role through established clerical and IRGC channels, with security forces maintaining control amid subsequent protests and economic pressures. Recent regime statements in late May emphasize preparations against hybrid threats and internal unrest while pursuing diplomatic negotiations from a position of perceived strength, including on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz issues. IRGC influence has grown without evidence of factional fractures escalating to overt challenges, and no verified coup plots have surfaced in credible reporting since earlier April rumors. This stability, reinforced by suppressed dissent and unified elite signaling, aligns with the market's strong consensus against near-term internal military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$1,357,934Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-war leadership transition and institutional continuity underpin trader expectations of no coup attempt by June 30. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role through established clerical and IRGC channels, with security forces maintaining control amid subsequent protests and economic pressures. Recent regime statements in late May emphasize preparations against hybrid threats and internal unrest while pursuing diplomatic negotiations from a position of perceived strength, including on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz issues. IRGC influence has grown without evidence of factional fractures escalating to overt challenges, and no verified coup plots have surfaced in credible reporting since earlier April rumors. This stability, reinforced by suppressed dissent and unified elite signaling, aligns with the market's strong consensus against near-term internal military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,357,934Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's post-war leadership transition and institutional continuity underpin trader expectations of no coup attempt by June 30. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role through established clerical and IRGC channels, with security forces maintaining control amid subsequent protests and economic pressures. Recent regime statements in late May emphasize preparations against hybrid threats and internal unrest while pursuing diplomatic negotiations from a position of perceived strength, including on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz issues. IRGC influence has grown without evidence of factional fractures escalating to overt challenges, and no verified coup plots have surfaced in credible reporting since earlier April rumors. This stability, reinforced by suppressed dissent and unified elite signaling, aligns with the market's strong consensus against near-term internal military action.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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