US-Iran negotiations stalled after inconclusive direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff led the US side without reported participation from principals like President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, failing to resolve disputes over nuclear enrichment curbs and Strait of Hormuz access amid a US naval blockade. President Trump canceled planned follow-up envoy trips, while Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi pursued diplomacy in Moscow on April 27-28, blaming US inflexibility. No qualifying in-person diplomatic meetings—requiring physical presence and public acknowledgment—occurred between listed US figures and Iranian representatives by the April 30 deadline, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on negative outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,955,738 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Donald Trump
No
J.D. Vance
No
Marco Rubio
No
Jared Kushner
No
Steve Witkoff
No
$1,955,738 Vol.
Donald Trump
$740,530 Vol.
No
J.D. Vance
$687,128 Vol.
No
Marco Rubio
$65,584 Vol.
No
Jared Kushner
$243,838 Vol.
No
Steve Witkoff
$218,658 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran negotiations stalled after inconclusive direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff led the US side without reported participation from principals like President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, failing to resolve disputes over nuclear enrichment curbs and Strait of Hormuz access amid a US naval blockade. President Trump canceled planned follow-up envoy trips, while Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi pursued diplomacy in Moscow on April 27-28, blaming US inflexibility. No qualifying in-person diplomatic meetings—requiring physical presence and public acknowledgment—occurred between listed US figures and Iranian representatives by the April 30 deadline, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on negative outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$1,955,738End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran negotiations stalled after inconclusive direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff led the US side without reported participation from principals like President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, failing to resolve disputes over nuclear enrichment curbs and Strait of Hormuz access amid a US naval blockade. President Trump canceled planned follow-up envoy trips, while Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi pursued diplomacy in Moscow on April 27-28, blaming US inflexibility. No qualifying in-person diplomatic meetings—requiring physical presence and public acknowledgment—occurred between listed US figures and Iranian representatives by the April 30 deadline, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on negative outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$1,955,738End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
US-Iran negotiations stalled after inconclusive direct talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, where envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff led the US side without reported participation from principals like President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, failing to resolve disputes over nuclear enrichment curbs and Strait of Hormuz access amid a US naval blockade. President Trump canceled planned follow-up envoy trips, while Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi pursued diplomacy in Moscow on April 27-28, blaming US inflexibility. No qualifying in-person diplomatic meetings—requiring physical presence and public acknowledgment—occurred between listed US figures and Iranian representatives by the April 30 deadline, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on negative outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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