The ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran, launched February 28 with airstrikes on nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership targets, has dominated regional tensions into its seventh week as of April 19, without any other countries—such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Gulf allies—initiating independent drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil. Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Saudi energy infrastructure, UAE bases, and other Gulf states earlier prompted diplomatic condemnations but no direct counterstrikes, as allies defer to the US-led effort amid Strait of Hormuz closures, ship attacks, and IRGC naval threats. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 18 warning of "new bitter defeats" for US and Israeli forces underscores escalation risks, while stalled US-Iran talks over uranium enrichment and a looming ceasefire deadline could pressure coalition expansion or de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
$1,479,274 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
April 15
2%
April 30
8%
$1,479,274 Vol.
April 15
$1,057,846 Vol.
2%
April 30
$424,629 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran, launched February 28 with airstrikes on nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership targets, has dominated regional tensions into its seventh week as of April 19, without any other countries—such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Gulf allies—initiating independent drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil. Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Saudi energy infrastructure, UAE bases, and other Gulf states earlier prompted diplomatic condemnations but no direct counterstrikes, as allies defer to the US-led effort amid Strait of Hormuz closures, ship attacks, and IRGC naval threats. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 18 warning of "new bitter defeats" for US and Israeli forces underscores escalation risks, while stalled US-Iran talks over uranium enrichment and a looming ceasefire deadline could pressure coalition expansion or de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,479,274End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran, launched February 28 with airstrikes on nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership targets, has dominated regional tensions into its seventh week as of April 19, without any other countries—such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Gulf allies—initiating independent drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil. Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Saudi energy infrastructure, UAE bases, and other Gulf states earlier prompted diplomatic condemnations but no direct counterstrikes, as allies defer to the US-led effort amid Strait of Hormuz closures, ship attacks, and IRGC naval threats. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 18 warning of "new bitter defeats" for US and Israeli forces underscores escalation risks, while stalled US-Iran talks over uranium enrichment and a looming ceasefire deadline could pressure coalition expansion or de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,479,274End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran, launched February 28 with airstrikes on nuclear sites, missile facilities, and leadership targets, has dominated regional tensions into its seventh week as of April 19, without any other countries—such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Gulf allies—initiating independent drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil. Iran's retaliatory missile barrages on Saudi energy infrastructure, UAE bases, and other Gulf states earlier prompted diplomatic condemnations but no direct counterstrikes, as allies defer to the US-led effort amid Strait of Hormuz closures, ship attacks, and IRGC naval threats. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's April 18 warning of "new bitter defeats" for US and Israeli forces underscores escalation risks, while stalled US-Iran talks over uranium enrichment and a looming ceasefire deadline could pressure coalition expansion or de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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