Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched with massive airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, trader sentiment hinges on whether additional nations will directly join with strikes before the market's resolution date. Recent escalations include Iran's downing of drones over Shiraz on April 2—possibly Chinese Wing Loong 2 models operated by Saudi Arabia or the UAE—marking potential Gulf state involvement, alongside US ATACMS launches from Kuwaiti territory on March 31. Diplomatic signals, such as Pakistan's April 14 proposal for US-Iran talks and Israel-Lebanon negotiations mediated by Washington, suggest de-escalation efforts, while the US naval blockade of Iranian ports enforces economic pressure. Upcoming Pentagon briefings and congressional war powers debates could influence further alliances or restraint among NATO and Gulf partners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
$1,256,816 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
April 15
1%
April 30
6%
$1,256,816 Vol.
April 15
$858,458 Vol.
1%
April 30
$398,359 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched with massive airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, trader sentiment hinges on whether additional nations will directly join with strikes before the market's resolution date. Recent escalations include Iran's downing of drones over Shiraz on April 2—possibly Chinese Wing Loong 2 models operated by Saudi Arabia or the UAE—marking potential Gulf state involvement, alongside US ATACMS launches from Kuwaiti territory on March 31. Diplomatic signals, such as Pakistan's April 14 proposal for US-Iran talks and Israel-Lebanon negotiations mediated by Washington, suggest de-escalation efforts, while the US naval blockade of Iranian ports enforces economic pressure. Upcoming Pentagon briefings and congressional war powers debates could influence further alliances or restraint among NATO and Gulf partners.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,256,816End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched with massive airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, trader sentiment hinges on whether additional nations will directly join with strikes before the market's resolution date. Recent escalations include Iran's downing of drones over Shiraz on April 2—possibly Chinese Wing Loong 2 models operated by Saudi Arabia or the UAE—marking potential Gulf state involvement, alongside US ATACMS launches from Kuwaiti territory on March 31. Diplomatic signals, such as Pakistan's April 14 proposal for US-Iran talks and Israel-Lebanon negotiations mediated by Washington, suggest de-escalation efforts, while the US naval blockade of Iranian ports enforces economic pressure. Upcoming Pentagon briefings and congressional war powers debates could influence further alliances or restraint among NATO and Gulf partners.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,256,816End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched with massive airstrikes on February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear sites and military infrastructure, trader sentiment hinges on whether additional nations will directly join with strikes before the market's resolution date. Recent escalations include Iran's downing of drones over Shiraz on April 2—possibly Chinese Wing Loong 2 models operated by Saudi Arabia or the UAE—marking potential Gulf state involvement, alongside US ATACMS launches from Kuwaiti territory on March 31. Diplomatic signals, such as Pakistan's April 14 proposal for US-Iran talks and Israel-Lebanon negotiations mediated by Washington, suggest de-escalation efforts, while the US naval blockade of Iranian ports enforces economic pressure. Upcoming Pentagon briefings and congressional war powers debates could influence further alliances or restraint among NATO and Gulf partners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions