Trader sentiment on an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on the fragile US- and France-brokered agreement announced November 26, 2024, effective the next day, mandating Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon over 60 days and Hezbollah's retreat north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701 monitoring. Recent cross-border strikes have tested compliance, with Israel reporting Hezbollah violations and conducting limited responses, while diplomatic channels involving the US, Qatar, and Lebanon push de-escalation amid Gaza war spillover. Key risks include renewed Hezbollah rocket fire or Israeli airstrikes; upcoming UN Security Council reviews and US envoy talks could solidify or unravel the truce, reflecting trader caution on enforcement in this longstanding territorial dispute.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
$371,105 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
March 31
2%
June 30
40%
April 30
16%
$371,105 Vol.
March 31
$331,320 Vol.
2%
June 30
$38,427 Vol.
40%
April 30
$1,358 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader sentiment on an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on the fragile US- and France-brokered agreement announced November 26, 2024, effective the next day, mandating Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon over 60 days and Hezbollah's retreat north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701 monitoring. Recent cross-border strikes have tested compliance, with Israel reporting Hezbollah violations and conducting limited responses, while diplomatic channels involving the US, Qatar, and Lebanon push de-escalation amid Gaza war spillover. Key risks include renewed Hezbollah rocket fire or Israeli airstrikes; upcoming UN Security Council reviews and US envoy talks could solidify or unravel the truce, reflecting trader caution on enforcement in this longstanding territorial dispute.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$371,105End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader sentiment on an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on the fragile US- and France-brokered agreement announced November 26, 2024, effective the next day, mandating Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon over 60 days and Hezbollah's retreat north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701 monitoring. Recent cross-border strikes have tested compliance, with Israel reporting Hezbollah violations and conducting limited responses, while diplomatic channels involving the US, Qatar, and Lebanon push de-escalation amid Gaza war spillover. Key risks include renewed Hezbollah rocket fire or Israeli airstrikes; upcoming UN Security Council reviews and US envoy talks could solidify or unravel the truce, reflecting trader caution on enforcement in this longstanding territorial dispute.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$371,105End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire hinges on the fragile US- and France-brokered agreement announced November 26, 2024, effective the next day, mandating Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon over 60 days and Hezbollah's retreat north of the Litani River under UN Resolution 1701 monitoring. Recent cross-border strikes have tested compliance, with Israel reporting Hezbollah violations and conducting limited responses, while diplomatic channels involving the US, Qatar, and Lebanon push de-escalation amid Gaza war spillover. Key risks include renewed Hezbollah rocket fire or Israeli airstrikes; upcoming UN Security Council reviews and US envoy talks could solidify or unravel the truce, reflecting trader caution on enforcement in this longstanding territorial dispute.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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