A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initially launched April 16, 2026, as a 10-day halt on hostilities to enable peace talks targeting Hezbollah, has been extended amid mutual violations including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks. Israel, maintaining troops in a reinforced security zone, insists on Hezbollah's permanent disarmament as a precondition for any lasting agreement, a demand rejected by the Iran-backed group, stalling negotiations despite U.S. mediation under President Trump. Recent escalations—Israeli assaults reported as recently as yesterday and over 140 Hezbollah UAV incidents last week—fuel fears of collapse, with Washington talks scheduled this week potentially decisive for de-escalation or further truce extensions ahead of any permanent peace deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
$161,776 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
3%
$161,776 Vol.
May 31
$84,694 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initially launched April 16, 2026, as a 10-day halt on hostilities to enable peace talks targeting Hezbollah, has been extended amid mutual violations including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks. Israel, maintaining troops in a reinforced security zone, insists on Hezbollah's permanent disarmament as a precondition for any lasting agreement, a demand rejected by the Iran-backed group, stalling negotiations despite U.S. mediation under President Trump. Recent escalations—Israeli assaults reported as recently as yesterday and over 140 Hezbollah UAV incidents last week—fuel fears of collapse, with Washington talks scheduled this week potentially decisive for de-escalation or further truce extensions ahead of any permanent peace deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Volume
$161,776End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initially launched April 16, 2026, as a 10-day halt on hostilities to enable peace talks targeting Hezbollah, has been extended amid mutual violations including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks. Israel, maintaining troops in a reinforced security zone, insists on Hezbollah's permanent disarmament as a precondition for any lasting agreement, a demand rejected by the Iran-backed group, stalling negotiations despite U.S. mediation under President Trump. Recent escalations—Israeli assaults reported as recently as yesterday and over 140 Hezbollah UAV incidents last week—fuel fears of collapse, with Washington talks scheduled this week potentially decisive for de-escalation or further truce extensions ahead of any permanent peace deal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$161,776End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, initially launched April 16, 2026, as a 10-day halt on hostilities to enable peace talks targeting Hezbollah, has been extended amid mutual violations including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks. Israel, maintaining troops in a reinforced security zone, insists on Hezbollah's permanent disarmament as a precondition for any lasting agreement, a demand rejected by the Iran-backed group, stalling negotiations despite U.S. mediation under President Trump. Recent escalations—Israeli assaults reported as recently as yesterday and over 140 Hezbollah UAV incidents last week—fuel fears of collapse, with Washington talks scheduled this week potentially decisive for de-escalation or further truce extensions ahead of any permanent peace deal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions