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Politics·Israel

Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?

icon for Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?
Politics·Israel

Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?

11% chance
Polymarket
NEW
11% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Itamar Ben-Gvir ceases to be the Israeli Minister of National Security for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ben-Gvir's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% on Itamar Ben-Gvir remaining Israel's national security minister through June 30, driven by the High Court of Justice's April 2026 ruling rejecting petitions for his dismissal over alleged police interference, opting instead for temporary limits and a compromise on law enforcement independence. No subsequent legal or political actions have emerged in the past month to compel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remove him, as Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party bolsters the slim governing coalition. Recent coalition moves to dissolve the Knesset amid Haredi disputes signal potential early elections but would leave Ben-Gvir in a caretaker role. Ongoing ministerial activities, like pushing immigration enforcement and mosque regulations, underscore his entrenched position barring unforeseen scandals or rulings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Itamar Ben-Gvir ceases to be the Israeli Minister of National Security for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Ben-Gvir's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,074
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Itamar Ben-Gvir ceases to be the Israeli Minister of National Security for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ben-Gvir's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Itamar Ben-Gvir ceases to be the Israeli Minister of National Security for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ben-Gvir's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus prices "No" at 89% on Itamar Ben-Gvir remaining Israel's national security minister through June 30, driven by the High Court of Justice's April 2026 ruling rejecting petitions for his dismissal over alleged police interference, opting instead for temporary limits and a compromise on law enforcement independence. No subsequent legal or political actions have emerged in the past month to compel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remove him, as Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party bolsters the slim governing coalition. Recent coalition moves to dissolve the Knesset amid Haredi disputes signal potential early elections but would leave Ben-Gvir in a caretaker role. Ongoing ministerial activities, like pushing immigration enforcement and mosque regulations, underscore his entrenched position barring unforeseen scandals or rulings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Itamar Ben-Gvir ceases to be the Israeli Minister of National Security for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Ben-Gvir's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,074
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:41 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Itamar Ben-Gvir ceases to be the Israeli Minister of National Security for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ben-Gvir's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 11% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 11¢, the market collectively assigns a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?" is 11% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.