Trader consensus prices a 91.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure past April 30, driven by the absence of mass protests or military defections since the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest subsided. Recent Iran-Israel escalation—Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage retaliation for the Damascus consulate strike, met by Israel's limited April 19 Isfahan airstrike—demonstrated regime cohesion and IRGC operational control without internal fallout. Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority remains unchallenged amid economic sanctions, while no credible reports signal imminent collapse triggers like leadership vacuums or uprisings. With the tight resolution window and high barriers to overthrow, traders view survival as the base case barring unforeseen shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
$11,187,312 Vol.
$11,187,312 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$11,187,312 Vol.
$11,187,312 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 91.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure past April 30, driven by the absence of mass protests or military defections since the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest subsided. Recent Iran-Israel escalation—Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage retaliation for the Damascus consulate strike, met by Israel's limited April 19 Isfahan airstrike—demonstrated regime cohesion and IRGC operational control without internal fallout. Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority remains unchallenged amid economic sanctions, while no credible reports signal imminent collapse triggers like leadership vacuums or uprisings. With the tight resolution window and high barriers to overthrow, traders view survival as the base case barring unforeseen shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,187,312End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a 91.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure past April 30, driven by the absence of mass protests or military defections since the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest subsided. Recent Iran-Israel escalation—Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage retaliation for the Damascus consulate strike, met by Israel's limited April 19 Isfahan airstrike—demonstrated regime cohesion and IRGC operational control without internal fallout. Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority remains unchallenged amid economic sanctions, while no credible reports signal imminent collapse triggers like leadership vacuums or uprisings. With the tight resolution window and high barriers to overthrow, traders view survival as the base case barring unforeseen shocks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,187,616End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 91.5% chance the Iranian regime will endure past April 30, driven by the absence of mass protests or military defections since the 2022 Mahsa Amini unrest subsided. Recent Iran-Israel escalation—Tehran's April 13 drone and missile barrage retaliation for the Damascus consulate strike, met by Israel's limited April 19 Isfahan airstrike—demonstrated regime cohesion and IRGC operational control without internal fallout. Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority remains unchallenged amid economic sanctions, while no credible reports signal imminent collapse triggers like leadership vacuums or uprisings. With the tight resolution window and high barriers to overthrow, traders view survival as the base case barring unforeseen shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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