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Hamas predictions & odds

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Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

6%

June 30, 2026

$2M Vol.

$25.7K Liq.

161

Ends in about 1 month

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

9%

June 30

$4M Vol.

$13.5K Liq.

979

Ends in about 1 month

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

11%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$10.3K Liq.

354

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

1%

$308K Vol.

$15.1K Liq.

389

Ends in 3 days

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

1%

$9.7K Vol.

$8.7K Liq.

2

Ends in 3 days

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

2%

May 31

$1M Vol.

$25.6K Liq.

48

Ends in 3 days

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

8%

June 30

$614K Vol.

$11.1K Liq.

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?

3%

$96.3K Vol.

$16.1K Liq.

15

Ends in about 1 month

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

16%

$50.4K Vol.

$2.0K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

34%

December 31

$571K Vol.

$24.1K Liq.

10

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

-

$1 Vol.

$141 Liq.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

48%

4

$7M Vol.

$382K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

17%

$14.0K Vol.

$852 Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...?

26%

June 7

$6.5K Vol.

$8.7K Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 month

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

59%

Likud

$9.2K Vol.

$91.4K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by...?

37%

June 30

$150K Vol.

$98 Liq.

31

Ends in about 1 month

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

34%

December 31

$147K Vol.

$180K Liq.

15

Ends in 7 months

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

16%

$208K Vol.

$33.1K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group A

Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group A

100%

MASQ

$8.2K Vol.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

86%

June 30

$10M Vol.

$2M today

$381K Liq.

245

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Hamas.

Polymarket currently hosts 103 active markets for Hamas that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $28.4M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 86% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Hamas predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.