Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island on July 15, 2026, represent the primary driver of trader assessments. Hengam lies near Qeshm Island and serves as part of Iran's defensive network around the chokepoint, where Tehran has asserted operational control and required vessel permissions since the February 2026 crisis began. US strikes have targeted Iranian military sites on multiple Gulf islands, amid broader aerial campaigns, while Iran has responded with attacks on regional targets and maintained its sovereignty claims. No verified shifts in territorial control have occurred. Potential escalations, including further strikes or amphibious actions, or de-escalation through diplomacy, could influence resolution timing within any specified market window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$120,756 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$120,756 Vol.
August 31
$93,208 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island on July 15, 2026, represent the primary driver of trader assessments. Hengam lies near Qeshm Island and serves as part of Iran's defensive network around the chokepoint, where Tehran has asserted operational control and required vessel permissions since the February 2026 crisis began. US strikes have targeted Iranian military sites on multiple Gulf islands, amid broader aerial campaigns, while Iran has responded with attacks on regional targets and maintained its sovereignty claims. No verified shifts in territorial control have occurred. Potential escalations, including further strikes or amphibious actions, or de-escalation through diplomacy, could influence resolution timing within any specified market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$120,756End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island on July 15, 2026, represent the primary driver of trader assessments. Hengam lies near Qeshm Island and serves as part of Iran's defensive network around the chokepoint, where Tehran has asserted operational control and required vessel permissions since the February 2026 crisis began. US strikes have targeted Iranian military sites on multiple Gulf islands, amid broader aerial campaigns, while Iran has responded with attacks on regional targets and maintained its sovereignty claims. No verified shifts in territorial control have occurred. Potential escalations, including further strikes or amphibious actions, or de-escalation through diplomacy, could influence resolution timing within any specified market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$120,756End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including reported US projectile strikes on Hengam Island on July 15, 2026, represent the primary driver of trader assessments. Hengam lies near Qeshm Island and serves as part of Iran's defensive network around the chokepoint, where Tehran has asserted operational control and required vessel permissions since the February 2026 crisis began. US strikes have targeted Iranian military sites on multiple Gulf islands, amid broader aerial campaigns, while Iran has responded with attacks on regional targets and maintained its sovereignty claims. No verified shifts in territorial control have occurred. Potential escalations, including further strikes or amphibious actions, or de-escalation through diplomacy, could influence resolution timing within any specified market window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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