Foreign Policy predictions & odds

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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

$13m Vol.

$320k today

$759k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

12%

$13m Vol.

$320k today

$759k Liq.

20,361

Ends in about 2 months

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Foreign Policy

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

$623k Vol.

$253k today

$37.9k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

87%

$623k Vol.

$253k today

$37.9k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

$2m Vol.

$158k today

$463k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

4%

$2m Vol.

$158k today

$463k Liq.

Ends in 24 days

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$8m Vol.

$94.7k today

$516k Liq.

71

Ends in 11 months

13%

$8m Vol.

$94.7k today

$516k Liq.

71

Ends in 11 months

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$26m Vol.

$50.5k today

$805k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

13%

$26m Vol.

$50.5k today

$805k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

US strike on Mexico by...?

Foreign Policy

US strike on Mexico by...?

$2m Vol.

$80.6k Liq.

124

Ends in 11 months

25%

December 31

$2m Vol.

$80.6k Liq.

124

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

$8m Vol.

$550k Liq.

5,422

Ends in 11 months

46%

$8m Vol.

$550k Liq.

5,422

Ends in 11 months

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

$2m Vol.

$80.7k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

1%

$2m Vol.

$80.7k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Foreign Policy

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$728k Vol.

$62.6k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

17%

$728k Vol.

$62.6k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

$653k Vol.

$85.7k Liq.

119

Ends in about 2 months

22%

Russia

$653k Vol.

$85.7k Liq.

119

Ends in about 2 months

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

$523k Vol.

$42.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

25%

December 31

$523k Vol.

$42.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Foreign Policy

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

$494k Vol.

$145k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

25%

$494k Vol.

$145k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Foreign Policy

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

$30.5k Vol.

$13.8k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

55%

$30.5k Vol.

$13.8k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

Foreign Policy

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

$540k Vol.

$5.3k Liq.

29

Ends in 5 months

27%

June 30

$540k Vol.

$5.3k Liq.

29

Ends in 5 months

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$107k Vol.

$30.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

38%

$107k Vol.

$30.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

$2m Vol.

$17.1k Liq.

117

Ends in 11 months

26%

December 31, 2026

$2m Vol.

$17.1k Liq.

117

Ends in 11 months

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

$214k Vol.

$16.4k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

11%

$214k Vol.

$16.4k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Ukraine election held by...?

Foreign Policy

Ukraine election held by...?

$2m Vol.

$10.0k Liq.

45

34%

December 31, 2026

$2m Vol.

$10.0k Liq.

45

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

$1m Vol.

$14.3k Liq.

145

Ends in 5 months

36%

June 30, 2026

$1m Vol.

$14.3k Liq.

145

Ends in 5 months

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Foreign Policy

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

$122k Vol.

$7.7k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

5%

$122k Vol.

$7.7k Liq.

1

Ends in about 2 months

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