Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections remain prohibited under martial law, extended through at least October 31, 2026, following Russia's full-scale invasion. Recent US pressure, including President Trump's October 2026 statements calling for new leadership in Kyiv, prompted President Zelenskyy to condition any vote on a 60-day Russian ceasefire guaranteeing security for polling, voter access, and campaign activities. Russian officials rejected such a pause, while domestic polls show Zelenskyy and former general Valerii Zaluzhnyi leading hypothetical first-round support amid declining backing for Zelenskyy's reelection bid. Traders assess probabilities around these security, legal, and diplomatic thresholds, with parliamentary extensions of martial law and any ceasefire negotiations serving as key near-term catalysts.