US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled in late March 2026 amid Moscow's launch of a spring offensive along the front lines, reinforcing trader consensus at 75% against a deal before 2027. Zelenskyy revealed US security guarantees are conditioned on Kyiv ceding the Donbas region, a core territorial dispute unmet by Russian acceptance despite earlier signals on guarantees. Negotiations paused further due to the Iran conflict, with February Geneva trilateral meetings ending without breakthroughs on demilitarized zones or vetoes on Ukraine's defense. Ongoing airstrikes, missile exchanges, and Kremlin demands for NATO concessions highlight deep divides, though Russia expressed hopes for resumed US talks soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$185,893 Vol.
$185,893 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$185,893 Vol.
$185,893 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled in late March 2026 amid Moscow's launch of a spring offensive along the front lines, reinforcing trader consensus at 75% against a deal before 2027. Zelenskyy revealed US security guarantees are conditioned on Kyiv ceding the Donbas region, a core territorial dispute unmet by Russian acceptance despite earlier signals on guarantees. Negotiations paused further due to the Iran conflict, with February Geneva trilateral meetings ending without breakthroughs on demilitarized zones or vetoes on Ukraine's defense. Ongoing airstrikes, missile exchanges, and Kremlin demands for NATO concessions highlight deep divides, though Russia expressed hopes for resumed US talks soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$185,893End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled in late March 2026 amid Moscow's launch of a spring offensive along the front lines, reinforcing trader consensus at 75% against a deal before 2027. Zelenskyy revealed US security guarantees are conditioned on Kyiv ceding the Donbas region, a core territorial dispute unmet by Russian acceptance despite earlier signals on guarantees. Negotiations paused further due to the Iran conflict, with February Geneva trilateral meetings ending without breakthroughs on demilitarized zones or vetoes on Ukraine's defense. Ongoing airstrikes, missile exchanges, and Kremlin demands for NATO concessions highlight deep divides, though Russia expressed hopes for resumed US talks soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$185,893End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled in late March 2026 amid Moscow's launch of a spring offensive along the front lines, reinforcing trader consensus at 75% against a deal before 2027. Zelenskyy revealed US security guarantees are conditioned on Kyiv ceding the Donbas region, a core territorial dispute unmet by Russian acceptance despite earlier signals on guarantees. Negotiations paused further due to the Iran conflict, with February Geneva trilateral meetings ending without breakthroughs on demilitarized zones or vetoes on Ukraine's defense. Ongoing airstrikes, missile exchanges, and Kremlin demands for NATO concessions highlight deep divides, though Russia expressed hopes for resumed US talks soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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