This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosion tests despite revoking its Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty ratification in 2023, with President Putin stating Moscow would mirror any U.S. resumption. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities amid this stalemate, driven by the February 2026 New START expiration and mutual rhetoric without action. The freshest development is today's announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka through May 10, echoing prior Yars and Sarmat launches but not involving detonations. Last week, CTBTO head warned against tests by Russia or the U.S., citing detection risks. Barriers include diplomatic norms and no U.S. tests; escalation in Ukraine or U.S. policy shifts could alter odds, with Novaya Zemlya as a key watch site.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosion tests despite revoking its Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty ratification in 2023, with President Putin stating Moscow would mirror any U.S. resumption. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities amid this stalemate, driven by the February 2026 New START expiration and mutual rhetoric without action. The freshest development is today's announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka through May 10, echoing prior Yars and Sarmat launches but not involving detonations. Last week, CTBTO head warned against tests by Russia or the U.S., citing detection risks. Barriers include diplomatic norms and no U.S. tests; escalation in Ukraine or U.S. policy shifts could alter odds, with Novaya Zemlya as a key watch site.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
May 1 2026
U.S. Congressional Research Service report reiterates Russia's nuclear arsenal modernization and treaty adherence post-New START expiration without nuclear test resumption
September 30, 2026 dips to 3%4%
The CRS report confirmed Russia's continued compliance with New START limits despite treaty expiration and absence of nuclear test resumption, further lowering market expectations for a test by September 2026.
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
May 1 2026
U.S. report to Congress confirms Russia's nuclear weapons modernization amid multiple failed tests and no nuclear test detonations; Russia's nuclear posture remains aggressive but non-testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 5%4%
This latest intelligence reinforced the market's view that Russia is unlikely to conduct a nuclear test by year-end.
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 30 2026
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
Apr 30 2026
Russian Defense Ministry reports successful training completion of Yars missile system driver-mechanics arriving for service
Routine personnel training for nuclear-capable missile systems indicated ongoing readiness but no test, supporting low market probabilities.
Apr 27 2026
Russian forces launch massive missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Escalation in conventional strikes near nuclear sites raised concerns but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining low test probability.
Apr 26 2026
40th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster marked by renewed warnings about nuclear risks amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict; no nuclear test reported by Russia
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
The event highlighted nuclear dangers but no new Russian nuclear test activity, sustaining low market probability.
Apr 22 2026
U.S. Congressional Research Service report reiterates Russia's nuclear arsenal modernization amid failed tests but no confirmed nuclear detonations; Russia continues nuclear saber rattling without testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Continued official assessments confirmed no nuclear test, maintaining low market odds.
Apr 22 2026
Dutch intelligence warns Russia is modernizing nuclear weapons but highlights destabilizing effects and short warning times, with no indication of imminent nuclear tests
The Dutch MIVD report noted Russia's deployment of advanced nuclear-capable weapons and ongoing arms race dynamics but did not report any nuclear test activity, supporting market skepticism about near-term tests.
Apr 21 2026
Head of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization warns at the UN that any nuclear test by the U.S., Russia, or others would trigger a dangerous spiral of nuclear testing globally
The warning underscored international pressure against nuclear tests, reinforcing expectations of restraint.
Apr 21 2026
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
Apr 21 2026
International Atomic Energy Agency head warns U.S. and Russia against resuming nuclear tests, emphasizing global risks
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi publicly cautioned that any nuclear test by Russia or the U.S. would trigger a cascade of global nuclear tests, reinforcing diplomatic pressure on Russia to maintain its testing moratorium.
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Apr 2 2026
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
Apr 2 2026
Russian Strategic Missile Forces conduct large-scale drills in Siberia involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia held major nuclear missile drills with Yars ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear readiness and signaling deterrence without conducting nuclear tests, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Apr 1 2026
U.S. intelligence community reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts without new nuclear detonations
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
The U.S. 2026 Annual Threat Assessment highlighted Russia's modernization of nuclear capabilities amid multiple failed tests, suggesting technical challenges and reducing expectations of imminent nuclear testing.
Mar 31 2026
U.S. intelligence community reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts, but no new nuclear test detonations; New START Treaty expires but Russia signals intent to abide by limits if the U.S. does so
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
This report highlighted Russia's nuclear modernization challenges without evidence of imminent testing, reducing market confidence in a near-term test.
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosion tests despite revoking its Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty ratification in 2023, with President Putin stating Moscow would mirror any U.S. resumption. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities amid this stalemate, driven by the February 2026 New START expiration and mutual rhetoric without action. The freshest development is today's announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka through May 10, echoing prior Yars and Sarmat launches but not involving detonations. Last week, CTBTO head warned against tests by Russia or the U.S., citing detection risks. Barriers include diplomatic norms and no U.S. tests; escalation in Ukraine or U.S. policy shifts could alter odds, with Novaya Zemlya as a key watch site.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Russia maintains a de facto moratorium on nuclear explosion tests despite revoking its Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty ratification in 2023, with President Putin stating Moscow would mirror any U.S. resumption. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities amid this stalemate, driven by the February 2026 New START expiration and mutual rhetoric without action. The freshest development is today's announcement of nuclear-capable missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka through May 10, echoing prior Yars and Sarmat launches but not involving detonations. Last week, CTBTO head warned against tests by Russia or the U.S., citing detection risks. Barriers include diplomatic norms and no U.S. tests; escalation in Ukraine or U.S. policy shifts could alter odds, with Novaya Zemlya as a key watch site.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 4 2026
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook
May 1 2026
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium
May 1 2026
U.S. Congressional Research Service report reiterates Russia's nuclear arsenal modernization and treaty adherence post-New START expiration without nuclear test resumption
September 30, 2026 dips to 3%4%
The CRS report confirmed Russia's continued compliance with New START limits despite treaty expiration and absence of nuclear test resumption, further lowering market expectations for a test by September 2026.
May 1 2026
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.
May 1 2026
U.S. report to Congress confirms Russia's nuclear weapons modernization amid multiple failed tests and no nuclear test detonations; Russia's nuclear posture remains aggressive but non-testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 5%4%
This latest intelligence reinforced the market's view that Russia is unlikely to conduct a nuclear test by year-end.
Apr 30 2026
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%
IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.
Apr 30 2026
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test
Apr 30 2026
Russian Defense Ministry reports successful training completion of Yars missile system driver-mechanics arriving for service
Routine personnel training for nuclear-capable missile systems indicated ongoing readiness but no test, supporting low market probabilities.
Apr 27 2026
Russian forces launch massive missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Escalation in conventional strikes near nuclear sites raised concerns but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining low test probability.
Apr 26 2026
40th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster marked by renewed warnings about nuclear risks amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict; no nuclear test reported by Russia
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
The event highlighted nuclear dangers but no new Russian nuclear test activity, sustaining low market probability.
Apr 22 2026
U.S. Congressional Research Service report reiterates Russia's nuclear arsenal modernization amid failed tests but no confirmed nuclear detonations; Russia continues nuclear saber rattling without testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Continued official assessments confirmed no nuclear test, maintaining low market odds.
Apr 22 2026
Dutch intelligence warns Russia is modernizing nuclear weapons but highlights destabilizing effects and short warning times, with no indication of imminent nuclear tests
The Dutch MIVD report noted Russia's deployment of advanced nuclear-capable weapons and ongoing arms race dynamics but did not report any nuclear test activity, supporting market skepticism about near-term tests.
Apr 21 2026
Head of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization warns at the UN that any nuclear test by the U.S., Russia, or others would trigger a dangerous spiral of nuclear testing globally
The warning underscored international pressure against nuclear tests, reinforcing expectations of restraint.
Apr 21 2026
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint
Apr 21 2026
International Atomic Energy Agency head warns U.S. and Russia against resuming nuclear tests, emphasizing global risks
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi publicly cautioned that any nuclear test by Russia or the U.S. would trigger a cascade of global nuclear tests, reinforcing diplomatic pressure on Russia to maintain its testing moratorium.
Apr 18 2026
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”
Apr 2 2026
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported
Apr 2 2026
Russian Strategic Missile Forces conduct large-scale drills in Siberia involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia held major nuclear missile drills with Yars ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear readiness and signaling deterrence without conducting nuclear tests, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.
Apr 1 2026
U.S. intelligence community reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts without new nuclear detonations
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
The U.S. 2026 Annual Threat Assessment highlighted Russia's modernization of nuclear capabilities amid multiple failed tests, suggesting technical challenges and reducing expectations of imminent nuclear testing.
Mar 31 2026
U.S. intelligence community reports multiple failed Russian nuclear weapons tests and ongoing modernization efforts, but no new nuclear test detonations; New START Treaty expires but Russia signals intent to abide by limits if the U.S. does so
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
This report highlighted Russia's nuclear modernization challenges without evidence of imminent testing, reducing market confidence in a near-term test.
Mar 15 2026
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions
"Russia nuclear test by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 8%, followed by "September 30, 2026" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Russia nuclear test by...?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Russia nuclear test by...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Russia nuclear test by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at just 8%, with "September 30, 2026" close behind at 5%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.
The resolution rules for "Russia nuclear test by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Russia nuclear test by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.4 million traded on “Russia nuclear test by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Russia nuclear test by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 8¢ for "December 31, 2026" in the "Russia nuclear test by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 8% chance that "December 31, 2026" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 8¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 92¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Russia nuclear test by...?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.
The "Russia nuclear test by...?" market has a growing discussion of 7 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Russia nuclear test by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions