President Trump's October 2025 directive to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to adversary programs has shaped trader views on markets asking whether an explosive test occurs by specific 2026 deadlines. Official statements cited concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including U.S. accusations of prior low-yield Chinese tests, yet the U.S. has observed a testing moratorium since 1992. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for underground explosive tests would require 24-36 months under current readiness plans, creating significant near-term barriers. No test has occurred as of mid-2026, and ongoing stockpile stewardship plus diplomatic considerations continue to influence timelines and probabilities reflected in current pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$670,195 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
1%
30 сентября 2026 года
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
10%
$670,195 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$42,083 Объем
1%
30 сентября 2026 года
$7,151 Объем
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
$10,742 Объем
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to adversary programs has shaped trader views on markets asking whether an explosive test occurs by specific 2026 deadlines. Official statements cited concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including U.S. accusations of prior low-yield Chinese tests, yet the U.S. has observed a testing moratorium since 1992. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for underground explosive tests would require 24-36 months under current readiness plans, creating significant near-term barriers. No test has occurred as of mid-2026, and ongoing stockpile stewardship plus diplomatic considerations continue to influence timelines and probabilities reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$670,195Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to adversary programs has shaped trader views on markets asking whether an explosive test occurs by specific 2026 deadlines. Official statements cited concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including U.S. accusations of prior low-yield Chinese tests, yet the U.S. has observed a testing moratorium since 1992. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for underground explosive tests would require 24-36 months under current readiness plans, creating significant near-term barriers. No test has occurred as of mid-2026, and ongoing stockpile stewardship plus diplomatic considerations continue to influence timelines and probabilities reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$670,195Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to restart U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to adversary programs has shaped trader views on markets asking whether an explosive test occurs by specific 2026 deadlines. Official statements cited concerns over Russian and Chinese activities, including U.S. accusations of prior low-yield Chinese tests, yet the U.S. has observed a testing moratorium since 1992. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for underground explosive tests would require 24-36 months under current readiness plans, creating significant near-term barriers. No test has occurred as of mid-2026, and ongoing stockpile stewardship plus diplomatic considerations continue to influence timelines and probabilities reflected in current pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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