President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing on an equal basis with Russia and China triggered the market but produced limited follow-through. The 1992 moratorium remains in effect, with NNSA readiness timelines indicating 24–36 months for full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. No dedicated funding surge or site reactivation has materialized amid competing stockpile stewardship and modernization priorities. Subcritical experiments and computer simulations continue without crossing into prohibited detonations, while congressional measures and state resolutions seek to preserve the status quo. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 removed one treaty constraint, yet trader consensus assigns only single-digit probabilities to an explosive test by late 2026, reflecting technical lead times, budgetary trade-offs, and diplomatic signaling costs against peer competitor developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$770,068 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing on an equal basis with Russia and China triggered the market but produced limited follow-through. The 1992 moratorium remains in effect, with NNSA readiness timelines indicating 24–36 months for full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. No dedicated funding surge or site reactivation has materialized amid competing stockpile stewardship and modernization priorities. Subcritical experiments and computer simulations continue without crossing into prohibited detonations, while congressional measures and state resolutions seek to preserve the status quo. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 removed one treaty constraint, yet trader consensus assigns only single-digit probabilities to an explosive test by late 2026, reflecting technical lead times, budgetary trade-offs, and diplomatic signaling costs against peer competitor developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing on an equal basis with Russia and China triggered the market but produced limited follow-through. The 1992 moratorium remains in effect, with NNSA readiness timelines indicating 24–36 months for full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. No dedicated funding surge or site reactivation has materialized amid competing stockpile stewardship and modernization priorities. Subcritical experiments and computer simulations continue without crossing into prohibited detonations, while congressional measures and state resolutions seek to preserve the status quo. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 removed one treaty constraint, yet trader consensus assigns only single-digit probabilities to an explosive test by late 2026, reflecting technical lead times, budgetary trade-offs, and diplomatic signaling costs against peer competitor developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing on an equal basis with Russia and China triggered the market but produced limited follow-through. The 1992 moratorium remains in effect, with NNSA readiness timelines indicating 24–36 months for full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. No dedicated funding surge or site reactivation has materialized amid competing stockpile stewardship and modernization priorities. Subcritical experiments and computer simulations continue without crossing into prohibited detonations, while congressional measures and state resolutions seek to preserve the status quo. New START's expiration earlier in 2026 removed one treaty constraint, yet trader consensus assigns only single-digit probabilities to an explosive test by late 2026, reflecting technical lead times, budgetary trade-offs, and diplomatic signaling costs against peer competitor developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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