The U.S. voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing has held since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness timelines of 24-36 months for any presidential decision to resume. October 2025 statements by President Trump calling for tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China briefly elevated trader attention, yet subsequent administration clarifications and congressional pushback—including proposed funding restrictions—have kept probabilities for a test by late 2026 below 10%. Key constraints include the absence of technical stockpile needs under the annual lab assessment process, opposition from key senators and Nevada officials, risks of reciprocal testing by adversaries, and ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to arms control and the NPT review cycle. Subcritical or non-explosive experiments remain possible without triggering market resolution, while full-yield underground tests face layered procedural, budgetary, and international hurdles through the remainder of the year.