President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged activities by Russia and China introduced significant uncertainty, though subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized ongoing assessments rather than immediate explosive tests. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on yield-producing nuclear explosive tests since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for safety and reliability assessments. Technical preparations for underground testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require substantial lead time, with historical readiness estimates around 36 months. New START's expiration in February 2026 and related congressional funding for nuclear modernization have kept the issue active, yet no full-scale tests have occurred as of mid-2026 amid diplomatic and procedural constraints. Traders weigh these barriers against potential policy shifts tied to ongoing reviews.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$670,195 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
30. Juni 2026
1%
30. September 2026
5%
31. Dezember 2026
10%
$670,195 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
$42,083 Vol.
1%
30. September 2026
$7,151 Vol.
5%
31. Dezember 2026
$10,742 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged activities by Russia and China introduced significant uncertainty, though subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized ongoing assessments rather than immediate explosive tests. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on yield-producing nuclear explosive tests since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for safety and reliability assessments. Technical preparations for underground testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require substantial lead time, with historical readiness estimates around 36 months. New START's expiration in February 2026 and related congressional funding for nuclear modernization have kept the issue active, yet no full-scale tests have occurred as of mid-2026 amid diplomatic and procedural constraints. Traders weigh these barriers against potential policy shifts tied to ongoing reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$670,195Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged activities by Russia and China introduced significant uncertainty, though subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized ongoing assessments rather than immediate explosive tests. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on yield-producing nuclear explosive tests since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for safety and reliability assessments. Technical preparations for underground testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require substantial lead time, with historical readiness estimates around 36 months. New START's expiration in February 2026 and related congressional funding for nuclear modernization have kept the issue active, yet no full-scale tests have occurred as of mid-2026 amid diplomatic and procedural constraints. Traders weigh these barriers against potential policy shifts tied to ongoing reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$670,195Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing in response to alleged activities by Russia and China introduced significant uncertainty, though subsequent clarifications from administration officials emphasized ongoing assessments rather than immediate explosive tests. The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on yield-producing nuclear explosive tests since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for safety and reliability assessments. Technical preparations for underground testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require substantial lead time, with historical readiness estimates around 36 months. New START's expiration in February 2026 and related congressional funding for nuclear modernization have kept the issue active, yet no full-scale tests have occurred as of mid-2026 amid diplomatic and procedural constraints. Traders weigh these barriers against potential policy shifts tied to ongoing reviews.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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