U.S. nuclear test by...?
$325,377 Vol.
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
December 31
$94,417 Vol.
1%
December 31
$94,417 Vol.
1%
March 31, 2026
$37,771 Vol.
5%
March 31, 2026
$37,771 Vol.
5%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Nov 5, 2025, 6:13 PM UTC
Volume
$325,377End Date
Mar 31, 2026Created At
Nov 5, 2025, 6:13 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...$325,377 Vol.
U.S. nuclear test by...?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
December 31
$94,417 Vol.
1%
March 31, 2026
$37,771 Vol.
5%
About
Volume
$325,377End Date
Mar 31, 2026Created At
Nov 5, 2025, 6:13 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.