President Donald Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China remains the central driver of market positioning. Subsequent statements from the Energy Secretary clarified that the instruction targeted subcritical experiments and non-explosive system checks rather than full-yield detonations, consistent with the 1992 moratorium. Russia responded by directing its own planning for potential tests, while members of Congress introduced legislation requiring legislative approval before any explosive test. The Department of Energy maintains that full underground explosive readiness at the Nevada National Security Site would require months to years of preparation. No nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and scheduled stockpile stewardship activities continue without alteration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$667,383 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
9%
$667,383 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$40,037 Объем
2%
30 сентября 2026 года
$6,655 Объем
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
$10,472 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China remains the central driver of market positioning. Subsequent statements from the Energy Secretary clarified that the instruction targeted subcritical experiments and non-explosive system checks rather than full-yield detonations, consistent with the 1992 moratorium. Russia responded by directing its own planning for potential tests, while members of Congress introduced legislation requiring legislative approval before any explosive test. The Department of Energy maintains that full underground explosive readiness at the Nevada National Security Site would require months to years of preparation. No nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and scheduled stockpile stewardship activities continue without alteration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$667,383Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China remains the central driver of market positioning. Subsequent statements from the Energy Secretary clarified that the instruction targeted subcritical experiments and non-explosive system checks rather than full-yield detonations, consistent with the 1992 moratorium. Russia responded by directing its own planning for potential tests, while members of Congress introduced legislation requiring legislative approval before any explosive test. The Department of Energy maintains that full underground explosive readiness at the Nevada National Security Site would require months to years of preparation. No nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and scheduled stockpile stewardship activities continue without alteration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$667,383Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China remains the central driver of market positioning. Subsequent statements from the Energy Secretary clarified that the instruction targeted subcritical experiments and non-explosive system checks rather than full-yield detonations, consistent with the 1992 moratorium. Russia responded by directing its own planning for potential tests, while members of Congress introduced legislation requiring legislative approval before any explosive test. The Department of Energy maintains that full underground explosive readiness at the Nevada National Security Site would require months to years of preparation. No nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and scheduled stockpile stewardship activities continue without alteration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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