The U.S. voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing, in place since 1992, remains the dominant constraint on this market, supported by the Stockpile Stewardship Program and Senate resistance to resuming detonations that could trigger an arms race. Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026 dates because no explosive yield-producing event has occurred despite 2025 statements from President Trump directing planning for parity with China and Russia. Recent developments include September 2026 non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiments at the Nevada National Security Site aimed at refining detection of foreign decoupled tests, alongside confidential U.S. diplomatic pressure on Beijing over alleged low-yield activity. No confirmation hearings, legislative votes, or site preparations for full-scale U.S. testing have advanced, leaving the outcome dependent on executive decisions within the resolution window.