Skip to main content
icon for Ядерне випробування США...?

Ядерне випробування США...?

icon for Ядерне випробування США...?

Ядерне випробування США...?

$667,383 Обс.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$667,383 Обс.

Polymarket

30 червня 2026 року

$40,037 Обс.

2%

30 вересня 2026 року

$6,655 Обс.

5%

31 грудня 2026 року

$10,472 Обс.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$667,383
Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$667,383
Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Ядерне випробування США...?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «31 грудня 2026 року» з 9%, далі «30 вересня 2026 року» з 5%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Ядерне випробування США...?» згенерував $667.4K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 5, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Ядерне випробування США...?», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Це відкритий ринок. Поточний лідер для «Ядерне випробування США...?» — «31 грудня 2026 року» лише з 9%, а «30 вересня 2026 року» — близько позаду з 5%. Жоден результат не має впевненої більшості — трейдери вважають це дуже невизначеним.

Правила вирішення для «Ядерне випробування США...?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.