US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled over core territorial disputes, with Russia demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern Donetsk region—a precondition Kyiv rejects outright—prompting trader consensus at 90.5% probability of no deal by June 30. Kremlin spokesman Peskov cited a "situational pause" in late March negotiations amid reports of no substantial progress since early March, when planned sessions failed amid mutual front-line claims. Ongoing Russian offensives in northern Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, per March 19 assessments, reflect persistent escalation without de-escalation signals, while limited advances on demilitarized zones and security guarantees fail to bridge polar positions. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or battlefield shifts could alter odds, though barriers remain high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$64,595 Vol.
$64,595 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$64,595 Vol.
$64,595 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled over core territorial disputes, with Russia demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern Donetsk region—a precondition Kyiv rejects outright—prompting trader consensus at 90.5% probability of no deal by June 30. Kremlin spokesman Peskov cited a "situational pause" in late March negotiations amid reports of no substantial progress since early March, when planned sessions failed amid mutual front-line claims. Ongoing Russian offensives in northern Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, per March 19 assessments, reflect persistent escalation without de-escalation signals, while limited advances on demilitarized zones and security guarantees fail to bridge polar positions. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or battlefield shifts could alter odds, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$64,595End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled over core territorial disputes, with Russia demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern Donetsk region—a precondition Kyiv rejects outright—prompting trader consensus at 90.5% probability of no deal by June 30. Kremlin spokesman Peskov cited a "situational pause" in late March negotiations amid reports of no substantial progress since early March, when planned sessions failed amid mutual front-line claims. Ongoing Russian offensives in northern Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, per March 19 assessments, reflect persistent escalation without de-escalation signals, while limited advances on demilitarized zones and security guarantees fail to bridge polar positions. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or battlefield shifts could alter odds, though barriers remain high.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,595End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-brokered peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled over core territorial disputes, with Russia demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern Donetsk region—a precondition Kyiv rejects outright—prompting trader consensus at 90.5% probability of no deal by June 30. Kremlin spokesman Peskov cited a "situational pause" in late March negotiations amid reports of no substantial progress since early March, when planned sessions failed amid mutual front-line claims. Ongoing Russian offensives in northern Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, per March 19 assessments, reflect persistent escalation without de-escalation signals, while limited advances on demilitarized zones and security guarantees fail to bridge polar positions. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or battlefield shifts could alter odds, though barriers remain high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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