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Next leader out of power before 2027?

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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Hungary PM 55%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 18%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 6.1%

Starmer - UK PM 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,745,467 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM 55%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 18%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 6.1%

Starmer - UK PM 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,745,467 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM

$22,462 Vol.

55%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$16,325 Vol.

18%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$573,065 Vol.

6%

Starmer - UK PM

$557,627 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$276,765 Vol.

2%

Putin - Russia President

$350,908 Vol.

2%

Petro - Colombia President

$12,863 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$10,226 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$11,350 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$204,171 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$68,219 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$58,388 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$39,691 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$11,403 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$75,965 Vol.

1%

Newsom - California Governor

$113,395 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$40,702 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$20,730 Vol.

1%

Milei - Argentina President

$35,589 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$40,168 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$28,262 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$25,063 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$28,850 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$64,593 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$58,686 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán leaving power first before 2027 at 55%, propelled by a fresh scandal over pardons granted to aides in child abuse cases, igniting Hungary's largest protests in years, unified opposition calls for resignation or snap election, and persistent EU sanctions withholding billions in funds amid declining approval ratings ahead of the 2026 parliamentary vote. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5%, amid Cuba's severe economic collapse featuring chronic blackouts, hyperinflation, mass emigration, and sporadic protests eroding regime stability without near-term elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.1% reflects ongoing Gaza war backlash, coalition fractures, corruption trials, and recent no-confidence votes he narrowly survived, with potential escalation risks from Hezbollah and Iran. Lower odds for others like UK PM Keir Starmer underscore relative stability despite policy hurdles.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,745,467
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán leaving power first before 2027 at 55%, propelled by a fresh scandal over pardons granted to aides in child abuse cases, igniting Hungary's largest protests in years, unified opposition calls for resignation or snap election, and persistent EU sanctions withholding billions in funds amid declining approval ratings ahead of the 2026 parliamentary vote. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5%, amid Cuba's severe economic collapse featuring chronic blackouts, hyperinflation, mass emigration, and sporadic protests eroding regime stability without near-term elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.1% reflects ongoing Gaza war backlash, coalition fractures, corruption trials, and recent no-confidence votes he narrowly survived, with potential escalation risks from Hezbollah and Iran. Lower odds for others like UK PM Keir Starmer underscore relative stability despite policy hurdles.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán leaving power first before 2027 at 55%, propelled by a fresh scandal over pardons granted to aides in child abuse cases, igniting Hungary's largest protests in years, unified opposition calls for resignation or snap election, and persistent EU sanctions withholding billions in funds amid declining approval ratings ahead of the 2026 parliamentary vote. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel trails at 17.5%, amid Cuba's severe economic collapse featuring chronic blackouts, hyperinflation, mass emigration, and sporadic protests eroding regime stability without near-term elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at 6.1% reflects ongoing Gaza war backlash, coalition fractures, corruption trials, and recent no-confidence votes he narrowly survived, with potential escalation risks from Hezbollah and Iran. Lower odds for others like UK PM Keir Starmer underscore relative stability despite policy hurdles.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 55%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027?" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.