A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 8 and brokered by Pakistan between Iran, the US, and Israel, anchors trader consensus on low near-term probabilities for direct Iranian military action against Israel, despite high volume exceeding $1 million. Failed negotiations in Islamabad as of April 12, coupled with the US enforcing a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz today—which Iran deems "piracy"—heighten escalation risks, yet no new Iranian strikes have materialized. Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, labeled ceasefire violations by Tehran, prompted IRGC threats of "crushing retaliation," but suppressed Iranian missile forces from prior US-Israeli strikes limit capabilities. Ongoing proxy clashes and diplomatic signals could tip balances ahead of the April 22 ceasefire expiry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$1,480,143 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
Yes
April 2
Yes
April 3
Yes
April 4
Yes
April 5
Yes
April 6
Yes
April 7
Yes
April 8
Yes
April 9
No
April 10
No
$1,480,143 Vol.
April 1
$27,379 Vol.
Yes
April 2
$70,645 Vol.
Yes
April 3
$82,167 Vol.
Yes
April 4
$50,226 Vol.
Yes
April 5
$44,905 Vol.
Yes
April 6
$41,166 Vol.
Yes
April 7
$50,990 Vol.
Yes
April 8
$577,810 Vol.
Yes
April 9
$278,227 Vol.
No
April 10
$256,628 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 8 and brokered by Pakistan between Iran, the US, and Israel, anchors trader consensus on low near-term probabilities for direct Iranian military action against Israel, despite high volume exceeding $1 million. Failed negotiations in Islamabad as of April 12, coupled with the US enforcing a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz today—which Iran deems "piracy"—heighten escalation risks, yet no new Iranian strikes have materialized. Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, labeled ceasefire violations by Tehran, prompted IRGC threats of "crushing retaliation," but suppressed Iranian missile forces from prior US-Israeli strikes limit capabilities. Ongoing proxy clashes and diplomatic signals could tip balances ahead of the April 22 ceasefire expiry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$1,480,143End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 8 and brokered by Pakistan between Iran, the US, and Israel, anchors trader consensus on low near-term probabilities for direct Iranian military action against Israel, despite high volume exceeding $1 million. Failed negotiations in Islamabad as of April 12, coupled with the US enforcing a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz today—which Iran deems "piracy"—heighten escalation risks, yet no new Iranian strikes have materialized. Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, labeled ceasefire violations by Tehran, prompted IRGC threats of "crushing retaliation," but suppressed Iranian missile forces from prior US-Israeli strikes limit capabilities. Ongoing proxy clashes and diplomatic signals could tip balances ahead of the April 22 ceasefire expiry.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,480,143End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 8 and brokered by Pakistan between Iran, the US, and Israel, anchors trader consensus on low near-term probabilities for direct Iranian military action against Israel, despite high volume exceeding $1 million. Failed negotiations in Islamabad as of April 12, coupled with the US enforcing a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz today—which Iran deems "piracy"—heighten escalation risks, yet no new Iranian strikes have materialized. Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, labeled ceasefire violations by Tehran, prompted IRGC threats of "crushing retaliation," but suppressed Iranian missile forces from prior US-Israeli strikes limit capabilities. Ongoing proxy clashes and diplomatic signals could tip balances ahead of the April 22 ceasefire expiry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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