Ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, including a strike on a police vehicle in Gaza City on April 14 that killed four people including a child, underscore the fragility of the six-month-old US-brokered ceasefire amid Israel's multi-front conflict with Iran and proxies. Health officials report over 750 Palestinian deaths from such actions since the truce began in late 2025, with recent IDF tunnel destructions in northern Gaza and artillery fire east of Khan Younis. Hamas rejected a US-led disarmament proposal by its week's-end deadline, prompting Israeli warnings of potential renewed operations, while aid restrictions and border closures exacerbate humanitarian strains. Traders watch for escalation signals like expanded ground incursions or diplomatic breakthroughs ahead of any full-scale resumption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael military action against Gaza on...?
Israel military action against Gaza on...?
$1,485,704 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
No
April 2
No
April 3
Yes
April 4
Yes
April 5
Yes
April 6
Yes
April 7
No
April 8
Yes
April 9
Yes
April 10
No
$1,485,704 Vol.
April 1
$29,069 Vol.
No
April 2
$22,899 Vol.
No
April 3
$39,289 Vol.
Yes
April 4
$76,007 Vol.
Yes
April 5
$134,402 Vol.
Yes
April 6
$727,468 Vol.
Yes
April 7
$66,296 Vol.
No
April 8
$63,647 Vol.
Yes
April 9
$116,130 Vol.
Yes
April 10
$210,498 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, including a strike on a police vehicle in Gaza City on April 14 that killed four people including a child, underscore the fragility of the six-month-old US-brokered ceasefire amid Israel's multi-front conflict with Iran and proxies. Health officials report over 750 Palestinian deaths from such actions since the truce began in late 2025, with recent IDF tunnel destructions in northern Gaza and artillery fire east of Khan Younis. Hamas rejected a US-led disarmament proposal by its week's-end deadline, prompting Israeli warnings of potential renewed operations, while aid restrictions and border closures exacerbate humanitarian strains. Traders watch for escalation signals like expanded ground incursions or diplomatic breakthroughs ahead of any full-scale resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,485,704End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, including a strike on a police vehicle in Gaza City on April 14 that killed four people including a child, underscore the fragility of the six-month-old US-brokered ceasefire amid Israel's multi-front conflict with Iran and proxies. Health officials report over 750 Palestinian deaths from such actions since the truce began in late 2025, with recent IDF tunnel destructions in northern Gaza and artillery fire east of Khan Younis. Hamas rejected a US-led disarmament proposal by its week's-end deadline, prompting Israeli warnings of potential renewed operations, while aid restrictions and border closures exacerbate humanitarian strains. Traders watch for escalation signals like expanded ground incursions or diplomatic breakthroughs ahead of any full-scale resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,485,704End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, including a strike on a police vehicle in Gaza City on April 14 that killed four people including a child, underscore the fragility of the six-month-old US-brokered ceasefire amid Israel's multi-front conflict with Iran and proxies. Health officials report over 750 Palestinian deaths from such actions since the truce began in late 2025, with recent IDF tunnel destructions in northern Gaza and artillery fire east of Khan Younis. Hamas rejected a US-led disarmament proposal by its week's-end deadline, prompting Israeli warnings of potential renewed operations, while aid restrictions and border closures exacerbate humanitarian strains. Traders watch for escalation signals like expanded ground incursions or diplomatic breakthroughs ahead of any full-scale resumption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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