Recent de-escalation following Israel's limited October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian military sites has anchored trader consensus toward low probabilities for additional direct military actions against Iran by March 31, 2025, with implied odds favoring restraint among major powers like the US and Israel. Ongoing proxy conflicts—Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi targets in Yemen—sustain regional tensions without prompting broader escalation, bolstered by US diplomatic pressure for proportionality. The incoming Trump administration's anticipated "maximum pressure" policy on Iran's nuclear program introduces upside risk, though mutual deterrence and stalled Vienna talks temper expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include January IAEA reports on Iran's uranium enrichment and potential early 2025 proxy flare-ups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$8,818,553 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
13%
UAE
12%
Qatar
5%
Turkey
4%
Kuwait
4%
Bahrain
3%
UK
2%
Any E.U. Country
2%
France
2%
Jordan
2%
Oman
1%
Germany
1%
Canada
<1%
$8,818,553 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
13%
UAE
12%
Qatar
5%
Turkey
4%
Kuwait
4%
Bahrain
3%
UK
2%
Any E.U. Country
2%
France
2%
Jordan
2%
Oman
1%
Germany
1%
Canada
<1%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent de-escalation following Israel's limited October 2024 airstrikes on Iranian military sites has anchored trader consensus toward low probabilities for additional direct military actions against Iran by March 31, 2025, with implied odds favoring restraint among major powers like the US and Israel. Ongoing proxy conflicts—Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi targets in Yemen—sustain regional tensions without prompting broader escalation, bolstered by US diplomatic pressure for proportionality. The incoming Trump administration's anticipated "maximum pressure" policy on Iran's nuclear program introduces upside risk, though mutual deterrence and stalled Vienna talks temper expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include January IAEA reports on Iran's uranium enrichment and potential early 2025 proxy flare-ups.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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