Escalating Israel-Iran tensions from proxy conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen drive trader consensus, with Israel commanding the highest implied probability for military action against Iran by March 31. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria and Iraq, following Iran's October 2024 missile attacks, signal readiness for escalation, while US and UK strikes on Houthi sites indirectly pressure Tehran. Iran's nuclear advances, highlighted in IAEA reports, fuel concerns over preemptive strikes. Incoming Trump administration rhetoric suggests firmer US posture, though direct involvement odds remain low. Traders watch March IAEA board meetings and potential Hezbollah flare-ups for catalysts shifting probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$8,851,198 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
14%
UAE
13%
Qatar
6%
Kuwait
4%
Bahrain
3%
Turkey
2%
UK
2%
Any E.U. Country
2%
France
2%
Jordan
1%
Germany
1%
Oman
1%
Canada
1%
$8,851,198 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
14%
UAE
13%
Qatar
6%
Kuwait
4%
Bahrain
3%
Turkey
2%
UK
2%
Any E.U. Country
2%
France
2%
Jordan
1%
Germany
1%
Oman
1%
Canada
1%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating Israel-Iran tensions from proxy conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen drive trader consensus, with Israel commanding the highest implied probability for military action against Iran by March 31. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria and Iraq, following Iran's October 2024 missile attacks, signal readiness for escalation, while US and UK strikes on Houthi sites indirectly pressure Tehran. Iran's nuclear advances, highlighted in IAEA reports, fuel concerns over preemptive strikes. Incoming Trump administration rhetoric suggests firmer US posture, though direct involvement odds remain low. Traders watch March IAEA board meetings and potential Hezbollah flare-ups for catalysts shifting probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated


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