Skip to main content

icon for Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

icon for Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?
Geopolitics·Middle East

Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

$197,255 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$197,255 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$34,621 Vol.

No

April 30

$162,635 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground operations remain confined to southern Lebanon up to the Litani River following the March 2026 invasion targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, with no verified advances toward Beirut, over 100 km north of the border.** A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 16 and extended for three weeks amid US-hosted talks has seen mutual violations, including IDF airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and Hezbollah rocket fire. Israel entrenches its security zone while demanding Hezbollah disarmament, as Lebanese forces assert limited control. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential no-confidence votes in Lebanon's parliament could tip escalation risks before mid-May resolution deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$197,255
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) ground operations remain confined to southern Lebanon up to the Litani River following the March 2026 invasion targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, with no verified advances toward Beirut, over 100 km north of the border.** A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 16 and extended for three weeks amid US-hosted talks has seen mutual violations, including IDF airstrikes on Beirut's southern suburbs and Hezbollah rocket fire. Israel entrenches its security zone while demanding Hezbollah disarmament, as Lebanese forces assert limited control. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential no-confidence votes in Lebanon's parliament could tip escalation risks before mid-May resolution deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$197,255
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Related

icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

8%
icon for US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

5%
icon for Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

19%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "March 31" at 0%, followed by "April 30" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?" has generated $197.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?" is "March 31" at just 0%, with "April 30" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.