Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of major diplomatic ruptures in recent weeks amid global tensions. South Africa's recent acceptance of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell's credentials on April 8, following EFF calls for his expulsion over judicial criticism, signals de-escalation despite bilateral frictions lingering from the 2025 U.S. expulsion of Pretoria's envoy. No verifiable actions have occurred in the past 30 days, contrasting with U.S. expulsions of Iranian diplomats and Iran's rhetorical calls for allies to target American envoys, which remain unheeded. Historical rarity of such moves—requiring severe breakdowns like sanctions violations or espionage—bolsters the low-risk outlook, though flashpoints in U.S.-South Africa relations or Middle East escalations could shift odds before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$13,031 Vol.
$13,031 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$13,031 Vol.
$13,031 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of major diplomatic ruptures in recent weeks amid global tensions. South Africa's recent acceptance of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell's credentials on April 8, following EFF calls for his expulsion over judicial criticism, signals de-escalation despite bilateral frictions lingering from the 2025 U.S. expulsion of Pretoria's envoy. No verifiable actions have occurred in the past 30 days, contrasting with U.S. expulsions of Iranian diplomats and Iran's rhetorical calls for allies to target American envoys, which remain unheeded. Historical rarity of such moves—requiring severe breakdowns like sanctions violations or espionage—bolsters the low-risk outlook, though flashpoints in U.S.-South Africa relations or Middle East escalations could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$13,031End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of major diplomatic ruptures in recent weeks amid global tensions. South Africa's recent acceptance of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell's credentials on April 8, following EFF calls for his expulsion over judicial criticism, signals de-escalation despite bilateral frictions lingering from the 2025 U.S. expulsion of Pretoria's envoy. No verifiable actions have occurred in the past 30 days, contrasting with U.S. expulsions of Iranian diplomats and Iran's rhetorical calls for allies to target American envoys, which remain unheeded. Historical rarity of such moves—requiring severe breakdowns like sanctions violations or espionage—bolsters the low-risk outlook, though flashpoints in U.S.-South Africa relations or Middle East escalations could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,031End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 73% implied probability for no country expelling a U.S. ambassador by December 31, driven by the absence of major diplomatic ruptures in recent weeks amid global tensions. South Africa's recent acceptance of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell's credentials on April 8, following EFF calls for his expulsion over judicial criticism, signals de-escalation despite bilateral frictions lingering from the 2025 U.S. expulsion of Pretoria's envoy. No verifiable actions have occurred in the past 30 days, contrasting with U.S. expulsions of Iranian diplomats and Iran's rhetorical calls for allies to target American envoys, which remain unheeded. Historical rarity of such moves—requiring severe breakdowns like sanctions violations or espionage—bolsters the low-risk outlook, though flashpoints in U.S.-South Africa relations or Middle East escalations could shift odds before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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