Market icon
Geopolitics·Mbs

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Mbs

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$111 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$1 Vol.

5%

December 31

$110 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman remains firmly entrenched as Saudi Arabia's de facto leader and prime minister, with no verified challenges to his authority in the past 30 days. A February 2026 cabinet reshuffle, replacing four ministers and adjusting 12 positions, further centralized power under his control, aligning with efforts to attract foreign direct investment through reforms like relaxed property rules. In the last week, reports detailed MBS privately urging US President Trump to escalate military actions against Iran amid regional tensions, positioning Saudi Arabia as a key diplomatic player. King Salman bin Abdulaziz, the formal monarch, shows no recent health updates signaling imminent succession, leaving traders to watch for royal family dynamics or geopolitical shocks.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman remains firmly entrenched as Saudi Arabia's de facto leader and prime minister, with no verified challenges to his authority in the past 30 days. A February 2026 cabinet reshuffle, replacing four ministers and adjusting 12 positions, further centralized power under his control, aligning with efforts to attract foreign direct investment through reforms like relaxed property rules. In the last week, reports detailed MBS privately urging US President Trump to escalate military actions against Iran amid regional tensions, positioning Saudi Arabia as a key diplomatic player. King Salman bin Abdulaziz, the formal monarch, shows no recent health updates signaling imminent succession, leaving traders to watch for royal family dynamics or geopolitical shocks.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman remains firmly entrenched as Saudi Arabia's de facto leader and prime minister, with no verified challenges to his authority in the past 30 days. A February 2026 cabinet reshuffle, replacing four ministers and adjusting 12 positions, further centralized power under his control, aligning with efforts to attract foreign direct investment through reforms like relaxed property rules. In the last week, reports detailed MBS privately urging US President Trump to escalate military actions against Iran amid regional tensions, positioning Saudi Arabia as a key diplomatic player. King Salman bin Abdulaziz, the formal monarch, shows no recent health updates signaling imminent succession, leaving traders to watch for royal family dynamics or geopolitical shocks.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman remains firmly entrenched as Saudi Arabia's de facto leader and prime minister, with no verified challenges to his authority in the past 30 days. A February 2026 cabinet reshuffle, replacing four ministers and adjusting 12 positions, further centralized power under his control, aligning with efforts to attract foreign direct investment through reforms like relaxed property rules. In the last week, reports detailed MBS privately urging US President Trump to escalate military actions against Iran amid regional tensions, positioning Saudi Arabia as a key diplomatic player. King Salman bin Abdulaziz, the formal monarch, shows no recent health updates signaling imminent succession, leaving traders to watch for royal family dynamics or geopolitical shocks.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 11%, followed by "June 30" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?" is "December 31" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.